Point Projections - Pro Fantasy Sports Plsyoff Football

Here are our point projections for the Super Bowl based on the Pro Fantasy Sports PFS Playoff Football game scoring system.

Donovan McNabb - Projected: 19.71, +/- 10
Corey Dillon - Projected: 16.68, +/- 7
Tom Brady - Projected: 13.15, +/- 4
Brian Westbrook - Projected: 12.22, +/- 11

David Patten - Projected: 6.71, +/- 6
David Givens - Projected: 6.54, +/- 6
Kevin Faulk - Projected: 6.27, +/- 6
Deion Branch - Projected: 6.12, +/- 10

Todd Pinkston - Projected: 4.80, +/- 4
Daniel Graham - Projected: 4.68, +/- 5
L.J. Smith - Projected: 4.25 , +/- 4
Dorsey Levens - Projected: 3.77, +/- 4

Freddie Mitchell - Projected: 2.92, +/- 3
Patrick Pass - Projected: 2.41, +/- 2
Bethel Johnson - Projected: 2.21, +/- 3
Christian Fauria - Projected: 1.63, +/- 3

Troy Brown - Projected: 1.59, +/- 3
Greg Lewis - Projected: 1.29, +/- 2
Reno Mahe - Projected: 0.89, +/- 1
Thomas Tapeh - Projected: 0.49, +/- 1
Ben Watson - Projected: 0.09, +/- 0

(Remember, the smaller +/- number, the closer the player should be to the projected points)

Also, If Terrell Owens plays, his projected points are 13.28 with a +/- of 10. However, this assumes the normal level of pareticipation that he had during the regular season and not a reduced level due to injury.


Kickers: Note, No +/- range is specified for Kickers

A. Vinatieri - 9 Points Projected
D. Akers - 8 Points Projected

Defenses: Note, No +/- range is specified for Defenses

New England - 9 Points Projected
Philadelphia - 7 Points Projected

Explaining the numbers (or, Why is Brady so far behind McNabb?)

For the regular season, McNabb averaged 28.5 passing yards and 23.6 rushing yards more than Brady. (Brady only averaged 1.8 rushing yards per game). McNabb also had 2 rushing TDs while Brady had none. As with many scoring systems, the QB earns only 1/2 the points for a passing TD (3) that is earned for a rushing or TD (6). Additionally each passing yard earns 0.05 points vs 0.1 for a rushing yard. This gives an advantage to McNabb over Brady since McNabb is the better runner.

Additionally, we need to look at the Fantasy Points Allowed Ratio (based on out copyright method). It shows that Philadelphia has the better pass defense (based on this scoring system, NE fans) with a ratio of 0.83650 vs NE's 0.90899 (1.0000 being average). Result...Advantage McNabb.

Tune in tomorrow for another league.