What Our Scoring System Means.

A lot of new visitors have taken advantage of our "Free Thru The Playoffs" Membership (still available). In joining, there are frequent questions as to what are the most important values that we calculate. While there are some detailed discussions on the values contained in the member side, here is a brief list of what some of these numbers are and how to use them.

• Projected Points - Obviously #1 on the hit list. This number is calculated based on the players performance in all previous games in which he has played. It represents what we project to be his game points earned assuming his normal level of participation. In other words Peyton Manning is assumed to be playing the entire game while James Mungro isn't. We adjust numbers based on the injury reports but, at this time, leave it to you to know if a backup will be playing the entire game in place of a regular.
• Consistency Factor - One of Rocket Man's math marvels. It lets you know just how good a player is at producing a given number of points regularly. Remember, a player who scores exactly 30 points every week (Consistency Factor of 100) and a player who scores 0 one week and 60 the next (don't ask) both have the same average, but which one is worth more?
• +/- Range - While we project a specific number of points for a given player, we realize that his actual score will usually be in some range around that score (hopefully higher). The Range value is another indication of how likely the player is to score the predicted number of points. The tighter the range, the greater the chance the actual score will be close to the predicted value. If you are a gambler, you might want to take a chance on a big range and hope for the big points.
• Participation Percent - Indicates the percent of the teams rushing, passing, or receiving plays in which a player is involved. No, the total number of passing plays does not always equal the total number of receiving plays (although sometimes it does). Why? Well, let's see if you are still paying attention. The first one to email me at docbitters@statleader.com with the correct answer will get a free membership next year. (Rocket Man, you are not eligible)

Remember, all of our calculations used league specific scoring systems, are based on week-by-week stat totals, and take into account our copyright method for determining a weekly fantasy points allowed rating for rushing, passing, receiving, and kicking for all 32 defenses.

How good are we? Well, football is by nature unpredictable but how about this. Last week for Best Buy, we predicted:

• Pit QB Ben Roethlisberger 12.2 points - Actual 14.0
• Jets RB Curtis Martin 11.7 points - Actual 10.6
• Jets RB LaMont Jordan 3.3 points - Actual 3.6 (So between the two Jets RB we predicted a total of 15.0 points. They earned 14.2)
• Phi RB Brian Westbrook 20.5 points - Actual 21.7
• NE QB Tom Brady 18.8 points - Actual 20.4
• Stl WR Torry Holt 14.4 points - Actual 14.2.
  

Of course there were those where we didn't come quite so close, say, for example, the entire Colts team. Who could have predicted that? After watching the Colts implode again at NE, I was afraid to even look at how we did. Yet despite only scoring 3 points, of the 8 Colts players we listed (Pyatt did not play), 5 (James, Stokley, Clark, Pollard, and Rhodes) were within their +/- Range, 1 (Harrison) was 0.6 points outside low, and 1 (Wayne) was just 1.4 points outside low. Only Mr. Manning was significantly (4.9 points low) outside the range. All-in-all, not too bad (Rocket Man, you job is safe for another week).

How will we do this week? We'll have the predictions posted a little later in the week. Come back and check 'em out.