Sunday, July 24, 2005

Fantasy Football League Running Back Ramblings

Just about every Fantasy Football magazine on the newsstand right now has Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson as the #1 Fantasy Football Running Back. The next three slots are generally filled by Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, and Edgerrin James.

From that point down, the numbers degenerate into whatever the gut feeling of the author happens to burp up.

While the final touches are being put on the StatLeader draft package, and given that I'm just as good a burping as any other Fantasy Football writer doing player ratings, here are some thoughts on a few players I would rate in the top ten:

Curtis Martin
  • How do you win the NFL rushing title, score 14 TDs, and end up ranked near the bottom of the second ten in most Fantasy Football preview magazines (generally 17th, 18th, or 19th depending on which one you are reading)? Well you shouldn't.
  • Martin has an incredible work ethic and an equally incredible attitude, plus, he is consistent. Without LaMont Jordon behind him (taking away roughly a quarter of the carries) and with a full season of a healthy and improving Chad Pennington, Curtis should have no problem coming close to last season's numbers. I would certainly consider him as the 8th or 9th best RB pick this year.
LaMont Jordan
  • Speaking of Martin's former backup, now the assumed starter in Oakland, look for a big year in the other city by the bay. Jordan, who frequently "commented" about his lack of playing time with the Jets appears to have the opportunity to get all he wants, and he certainly deserves it.
  • If Kerry Collins can consistently maintain the form he showed last season with the Raiders and if Randy Moss keeps a PMA (Positive Mental Attitude), Jordan looks to have a huge year ahead.
Brian Westbrook
  • Like Martin, Westbrook is another RB rated in the low teens by most publications. Sure he didn't break the 1,000 yard mark last year and sure he only got 3 rushing TDs. But ... consider the following:
    • Westbrook picked up an additional 703 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs, which in most all fantasy leagues count as much rushing yards and TDs.
    • Brian's 2004 numbers were better than his 2003 numbers which, under most Fantasy Football scoring systems, ranked him well within the top ten Fantasy running backs. And by the way, he improved his numbers while playing in two less games .
  • I'd definitely put Westbrook as a late first round or early second round pick (depending on the number of QBs drafted in the first round.
LaDainian Tomlinson
  • Will continue to be one of the best, but THE Best? No. Not this year. Why?
  • I suspect that SD QB Drew Brees will be returning to his more traditional form. Brees' 29 TDs last year were only one less that his total for the previous two seasons. If Brees can't repeat last season's numbers and with Phillip Rivers having about as much NFL game experience as I do, watch for opposing Ds will spend more time keying on LaDainian.
And then, ladies and gentleman, we have on the other end of the spectrum:
The entire Miami Dolphins Running Back Corps (or should I say corpse)
  • Sammy Morris, Travis Minor, Lamar Gordon, your 2004 Dolphins running backs. Adequate at best (ok, not really adequate).
  • The 2005 great hopes? Rookie Ronnie Brown and the return of the mystical, magical Ricky Williams. Yeh, Things are going to be great again in Miami. All this and Nick Saban too. .... Dream on Miami fans.
  • First, your current corpse of RBs has already proven their inadequacy. Second, as good as Ricky Williams was (underline was), he won't be available until week 6 (four game suspension plus the Fish have a week 4 bye) and he is reportedly not close to being in shape. Unless he can holistically get himself both physically and mentally ready, he may not even make it off the bench for more than a play or two.
  • As for Brown ... Sure he is talented, sure he has potential, but he is still a rookie. Plus, he isn't playing behind the best (more likely one of the worst) offensive lines. We wish him the best, and he might be worth a late round pick, just don't expect too much.