Surviving the NFLs Draft Day Survival Tips (Part 2)

Yesterday we started destroying...I mean discussing the 10 Fantasy Football "Draft Day Survival Tips" currently posted on NFL.com and also presented in the NFL.com Fantasy Football 2005 Preview Magazine.

If you read yesterday's post you know that I took issue with many of the things Mr. Gigliotti (the author) said in the first five of the 10 tips. If you didn't read yesterday's post, stop right here, scroll down, and read it first. (Shame on you!)

Today, I plan to take issue with item #6. So lets get right to it!

"6. The Best Defense Is a Good Offense"

• We're told, "If you don't draft your kickers last, make it the team defense that you draft last." The logic continues that defenses are so unpredictable from year-to-year that it just isn't worth using an earlier round pick. Sound advice? Sorry, not even close. Want some proof? Great, let's look at the NFL's own fantasy game.

• According to their rules, league contains 12 teams with 14 players per team. Their auto draft provides space for two kickers and two team defenses (live draft is one kicker and two Ds). If you follow the advice listed above that means, absolute best case, you will be drafting your defenses no better than round 11 in the auto draft and round 12 in the live draft (that means 120 players already picked in the auto draft and 132 in the live draft).

• Now let's look at how team defenses performed last year based on the NFL's own Fantasy Football scoring system. Through 15 games of the 2004 season:
• Baltimore had earned a total of 294 points.
• Buffalo - 282 points
• Lowly Cleveland - 176 points

• Now remember, to make the NFL's draft tip #6 valid, roughly 120 players would have to have better point totals that the best of the team defenses. So how did they do?

• Baltimore's 294 points ranks them in 4th place overall just ahead of Trent Green (288 points) and behind #3 Donovan McNabb (340 points).

• Buffalo with 282 would come in at #7 (not counting Baltimore) ahead of Shaun Alexander (275 points) and slightly behind #6 Drew Brees (284 points).

• So where did the Clowns defense come in. Well, you can't win them all ... or can you? Cleveland's 176 points still placed them in a tie for 39th place with Billy Volek, and ahead of such names as Reuben Droughns (174) and Jerome Bettis (174).

• How about the absolute worst team defense. Again going by the NFL's own Fantasy Football scoring system, that would be Oakland with 111 points. So did the Raiders make it into the top 120? Absolutely! They finished in a tie for 88th position with Dallas TE Jason Witten and ahead of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Kurt Warner, Alge Crumpler, and Julius Jones to name a few.

Now I don't have Rocket Man's head for numbers (By the way, thanks RM for the data), but I can sure as heck see that a good (or even an average) defense is going to get you a lot more points that a 10th round #3 or #4 WR or RB.

Once again, this just goes to show you how important it is to understand your game's scoring system, or better yet, to have someone like us that will do it for you.

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