Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #4

Draft Tip #4: Beware the Experts. (Part 2)

In the last installment we looked at some of the disparity (For our University of Miami fans, that means "differences" * ) in the player ratings between two of the major Fantasy Football preseason publications. At the end of that article, I posed the following questions:

1. Why the differences?
2. How do I know if I am ending up with a top-level starting player or Defense rather than one that should spend the season in the free Agent pool?
3. How many of these magazines do I have to buy at $7.99 or more to get a good idea what the real story is?

To Answer Question 1:

There are two primary reasons for the differences in player ranking between different publications. Scoring System used and Projected Stats for the season.

Scoring System:

• Publications may or may not tell you what scoring system they used when determining their rankings. If the do tell you (which many won't), check to see how close it is to your system before you put too much faith in the rankings, it does make a difference. For example, running QBs (Culpepper, Vick, etc.) will rank higher in a system that awards 6 pts for a rushing TD and 3 for a passing than they will in a system that awards 6 points for both rushing and passing TDs.
  

Projected Stats:

• This one is entirely based on what the publication's panel of "Experts" believes a given player is likely to do. ESPN's projects their #29 receiver to have almost 27% more receptions and nearly 57% more yards than does NFL.com (who, by the way, ranks the same receiver as #63).
  

To add in a further dash of confusion, why is ESPN's #2 RB projected to have 120 more rushing yards, 21 more receptions, and 230 more receiving yards than their #1 RB?

• Sure #1 has 4 more projected TDs, but by ESPN's own scoring system, the projected values give #1 a total of 325 points while #2 would get 336 points. If you happen to be in a league that awards 1 point/reception, the difference is even greater.

So, Who's right? Who do you believe? Who do you pick? Your answers to these along with the answers to Questions #2 and #3 above are.....going to be in Part 3 of "Beware the Experts".

* The Miami comment:

• Those of you who have followed my posts in StatLeader know that as an Alumni of THE Ohio State University, I have little use for certain other alleged universities including the University of MeatChicken, the Knitting Lions of Penn State, Condom U (So. Cal.), The Blighting Irish, and of course, The Ewe (Eweniversity of Miami).

• Last Year I determined that the only reason Miami refers to themselves as the "U" is that they must have difficulty with the entire word. In fact, they still can't figure out that Miami starts with an "M" and that there should be an "M" on their helmets rather than a "U" (Utah, Urbana, ??). So to help the poor unfortunate Miami students and alumni, I have taken it upon myself to explain certain big words found in the text. (There, that should generate some interesting emails)