Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #6

Evaluating the "Mock Drafts"

As you do your preseason draft preparations, you are likely to come across several mock drafts. Now for those of you fairly new to Fantasy Football, a mock draft is one where the editors, staff and/or friends of a given publication or web site conduct a "simulated" draft, the results of which are then made available for your use.

So what factors do you need to take into consideration when looking at different mock draft results?

To start with, remember that the group doing the drafting (usually listed) will normally include several individuals not directly involved with the publication or web site conducting the draft. Including these "outsiders" gives you another perspective on the perceived value of the various players and prevents the result from being just a carbon copy of that organization's "Cheat Sheet"

Now, look at the overall structure of how players have been drafted. RB's first, then WRs etc. Keep an eye out for any players that seem to have been drafted out of place across most or all of the mock drafts (a 1st round QB, a 2nd or 3rd round TE, etc.). Most Mock Drafts will provide some sort of running commentary to explain any surprises that may have occurred. By combining the information here you might pick up some valuable hints.

Now the bad stuff:

First, most Mock Drafts do not tell you the scoring system they used as a basis, if any. You really can't tell what criterion was used by the mock team owners to prepare for the draft.

Second, to meet publication deadlines many of these mock drafts are held in March or April. Player information can change significantly between then and your draft day. (Note the inclusion or retired Jacksonville WR Jimmy Smith in several Mock Drafts, including NFL.com's).

Third, be sure to check on the number of owners in a given draft. In a 10 team draft, like ESPN.com's, the person with the #1 pick will draft #20, #21,#40, #41, etc. In a 12 team draft, #1 will also pick #24, #25, #48, #49 and so on. We noted above that by including "outsiders" in a group's mock draft could be an advantage. However, it can also confuse things as owners frequently "play a hunch", especially in later rounds.

Fourth, know how many players are being drafted at each position. That can change the anticipated value of a player even more.

While the player selection order across different Mock Drafts is usually pretty close in the first few rounds (take the first 20 picks in any draft and compare them to the top 20 in any other draft) they will vary more and more as you go further into draft. Unfortunately, this is where you need the help most. After all, does it really matter if you get LT, Larry Johnson, or Shaun Alexander? But what about Ben Roethlisberger or Curtis Martin?

Ultimately, don't put too much into the player order of any given Mock Draft. Use the information carefully and as only one piece in the scope of the overall picture.

Next up: A look at the Rookies.