Player Ranking - Consistency Factors, and Confidence Ratings

I know many of you have been waiting for the continuation of Doc's Fantasy Football Draft Tips. He sort of left you hanging out there waiting for the next installment, The Comeback Kids. More on that shortly.

I have received numerous questions asking what types of information will be available in our draft package (to be released later this month). Well, there will be individual league by league rankings for the top 75 WRs, 60 RBs, 40 QBs and 35 TEs (not to mention Kickers and Ds) along with predicted carries, receptions, yards, etc.,

We'll also give you projected points, and perhaps most importantly our proprietary (copyright protected) Consistency Factor, and a new (and equally proprietary) Confidence Rating.

So what are the Consistency Factor and Confidence Rating and why do you need them?

• The Consistency Factor is a rating of how regularly a player equals his average point production. For example a player who scores 20 points every week (20 pt/week average) will have a consistency of 1.000. Meanwhile a player who scores 10 one week and 30 the next (also a 20 pt/week average) will have a Consistency Factor of somewhat less than one.

Now the Consistency Factor (CF) can be used in two ways.

• 1st, in player rankings. It allows us to rate players with different averages and CFs relative to one another. For example: Who is better a 20 pt/week average player with a .68 consistency factor or a 17 pt/week average player with a .80 CF?

• 2nd, It allows you to determine which player you want to draft or use in a certain situation. Sometimes you want the sure points a player with a high CF will earn. Other times you need the capability to have a player who can score well above his average. The CF allows you to make this choice.

Now, for the Confidence Rating (CR)

• Most every pre-season Fantasy Football publication gives you their predicted stats for a given player. However, they seldom tell you how they got those numbers or how confident they are that those numbers are correct.

• Our predicted player performance levels are provided to us by a variety of top-notch football prognosticators. We analyze these predictions and use them, among other things, to determine the CR. It basically tells you how confident we are that a given player will actually attain his projected performance numbers.

We've seen some other groups try to do something like our Consistency Factor, but frankly, they aren't even close yet. We have been doing this since we started up two and a half years ago and have continually tweaked it for accuracy during that time. As you know, all of our proprietary statistical analysis routines are done by a genuine 27 year rocket scientist (gee, I wonder who that could be).

Choose you information provider carefully and remember (with all humility) it's easier for a Rocket Scientist to become a Fantasy Football expert than it is for a Fantasy Football Expert to become a Rocket Scientist.

As for Doc, he and his family have been on pre-season vacation on the East Coast. He has promised to continue with his Draft Tips upon his return. Meanwhile Mister2 and his family have been doing the vacation thing on the West Coast. Since this is likely to be their last "time off" until after Week 17, I won't complain too much. Hey, wait a minute, why am I working?