Our 2006 Draft Package

Doc has asked me to explain a little about how our 2006 draft package works. And, if our web guys ever finish the new site (allegedly in the next day or two) you may actually see it.

So, here is how it works.

For each of the scoring systems we cover we have done the following:

• We have collected game-by-game stats on every QB, RB, WR and TE over the past 4 seasons.

• For each player, we used the 2006 scoring rules for each system we track to go back and calculate all of our specialized StatLeader numbers (Consistency Factors, Participation Percents, etc) again on a game-by-game basis.

• From these numbers we were able to get a breakdown of the overall performance of each player based on their participation levels.

With me so far? OK. Now here is what we did with those numbers.

• We went to six of the absolute top NFL prognosticators in the world and from them obtained their projections on the performance of each of the QBs, RBs, TEs, and WRs for 2006.

• There were no rules placed on the experts other than they had to list at least their top 35 QBs, 50 RBs, 35 TEs and 50 WRs along with their projected 2006 stats.
  

• Once we had the final projections, we compiled a list of players at each of the positions along with their projected stats from all six experts.
  

• Any player not listed by at least four of the six experts was immediately removed from the list (For Example both priest Holmes and Travis Henry fell victim to this one).

Now comes the fun part:

• Through the miracles of modern technology we combined the historic data, projected statistics, and ran them through our proprietary StatLeader number crunchers and out came the following:

1. A list of projected points for each player under each of the 2006 scoring systems we cover.
2. A ranking based on their points for that specific scoring system.
3. A confidence factor.
   

So what is the confidence factor?

• Simply put, it's the level of confidence we have that the points we have projected are correct.

• The Confidence Factor is based on how close the projection of the six experts match each other, the number of seasons a player has under his belt, and one or two other things.
  

• The Confidence Factor runs from 0 - 100. The higher the number (90 is pretty darn good, 50 is pretty darn not good), the better you should feel about his projected points.

So what will you get? Well:

• You will have a cheat sheet with the projected points, ranking and Confidence Factor for each player under the different scoring systems and...

• The historic data for the 2002-2006 season totals

We also have some interesting stuff on Kickers and Defenses.

Now remember that the draft package is only a drop in the proverbial bucket. We give you week-by-week individual point projections from Week-1 through Week 17 of the season, all for our special price of $19.99.

By the way, if some of you are facing a draft deadline in the next couple of days, let me know at rocketman@statleader.com and I'll see what I can do.