Point Projections - CBS Sportsline.com Playoff Challenge and Superbowl.com Playoff Challenge

Here are our point projections for the Super Bowl based on the CBS Sportsline.com Playoff Challenge and the Superbowl.com Playoff Challenge game scoring systems (They use the same system).

Donovan McNabb - Projected: 21, +/- 13
Corey Dillon - Projected: 16, +/- 6
Tom Brady - Projected: 14, +/- 5
Brian Westbrook - Projected: 11, +/- 11

David Patten - Projected: 6, +/- 6
David Givens - Projected: 6, +/- 6
Deion Branch - Projected: 6, +/- 9
Kevin Faulk - Projected: 5, +/- 6

Daniel Graham - Projected: 4, +/- 5
Todd Pinkston - Projected: 4, +/- 4
L.J. Smith - Projected: 4, +/- 4
Dorsey Levens - Projected: 3, +/- 4

Freddie Mitchell - Projected: 3, +/- 3
Patrick Pass - Projected: 2, +/- 2
Bethel Johnson - Projected: 1, +/- 2
Christian Fauria - Projected: 1, +/- 3

Troy Brown - Projected: 1, +/- 3
Greg Lewis - Projected: 1, +/- 1
Reno Mahe - Projected: 0, +/- 1
Thomas Tapeh - Projected: 0, +/- 1
Ben Watson - Projected: 0, +/- 0

Once again, the +/- rating gives an idea of the players consistency. For example, McNabb's 21 projected points with a +/- 13 means that he is most likely to score around 21 points, but he could be as high as 34 or as low as 8. Meanwhile, Brady's 14 and +/- 5 shows him to be more consistent. A vast majority of the time he will be in the 9 to 19 range with a most likely value of 14 for this scoring system.

Also, If Terrell Owens plays, his projected points are 13 with a +/- of 10. However, this assumes the normal level of pareticipation that he had during the regular season and not a reduced level due to injury.


Kickers: Note, No +/- range is specified for Kickers

A. Vinatieri - 9 Points Projected
D. Akers - 8 Points Projected

Defenses: Note, No +/- range is specified for Defenses

New England - 15 Points Projected
Philadelphia - 13 Points Projected

Tomorrow: Best Buy Fantasy Football Challenge projections.

Point Projections - Pro Fantasy Sports Plsyoff Football

Here are our point projections for the Super Bowl based on the Pro Fantasy Sports PFS Playoff Football game scoring system.

Donovan McNabb - Projected: 19.71, +/- 10
Corey Dillon - Projected: 16.68, +/- 7
Tom Brady - Projected: 13.15, +/- 4
Brian Westbrook - Projected: 12.22, +/- 11

David Patten - Projected: 6.71, +/- 6
David Givens - Projected: 6.54, +/- 6
Kevin Faulk - Projected: 6.27, +/- 6
Deion Branch - Projected: 6.12, +/- 10

Todd Pinkston - Projected: 4.80, +/- 4
Daniel Graham - Projected: 4.68, +/- 5
L.J. Smith - Projected: 4.25 , +/- 4
Dorsey Levens - Projected: 3.77, +/- 4

Freddie Mitchell - Projected: 2.92, +/- 3
Patrick Pass - Projected: 2.41, +/- 2
Bethel Johnson - Projected: 2.21, +/- 3
Christian Fauria - Projected: 1.63, +/- 3

Troy Brown - Projected: 1.59, +/- 3
Greg Lewis - Projected: 1.29, +/- 2
Reno Mahe - Projected: 0.89, +/- 1
Thomas Tapeh - Projected: 0.49, +/- 1
Ben Watson - Projected: 0.09, +/- 0

(Remember, the smaller +/- number, the closer the player should be to the projected points)

Also, If Terrell Owens plays, his projected points are 13.28 with a +/- of 10. However, this assumes the normal level of pareticipation that he had during the regular season and not a reduced level due to injury.


Kickers: Note, No +/- range is specified for Kickers

A. Vinatieri - 9 Points Projected
D. Akers - 8 Points Projected

Defenses: Note, No +/- range is specified for Defenses

New England - 9 Points Projected
Philadelphia - 7 Points Projected

Explaining the numbers (or, Why is Brady so far behind McNabb?)

For the regular season, McNabb averaged 28.5 passing yards and 23.6 rushing yards more than Brady. (Brady only averaged 1.8 rushing yards per game). McNabb also had 2 rushing TDs while Brady had none. As with many scoring systems, the QB earns only 1/2 the points for a passing TD (3) that is earned for a rushing or TD (6). Additionally each passing yard earns 0.05 points vs 0.1 for a rushing yard. This gives an advantage to McNabb over Brady since McNabb is the better runner.

Additionally, we need to look at the Fantasy Points Allowed Ratio (based on out copyright method). It shows that Philadelphia has the better pass defense (based on this scoring system, NE fans) with a ratio of 0.83650 vs NE's 0.90899 (1.0000 being average). Result...Advantage McNabb.

Tune in tomorrow for another league.

Point Projection On This Page

To celebrate Super Bowl Week we will be providing the projected points and +/- Range values on this page throughout the week for each the different playoff leagues we track.

Read This AFTER Reading the Previous Post

Ok Doc, I admit, I may be follically challenged. But, statistically speaking, compared to you and Mister2, I've got a forest up there.

RM

Fanball Playoff Hold'em

You asked for, you got it, Toyot...wait a minute, not Toyota,....Fanball Playoff Hold'em.

Due to your popular (and insistent) requests, we will be adding Fanball Playoff Hold'em point projections to our site for the Super Bowl. For those of you new to StatLeader, these projections are derived using the Fanball scoring system for this game in combination with a bunch of other high tech stuff developed by our NASA Rocket Scientist, Rocket Man. (No, we do not just make up numbers off the top of our heads...come to think of it other than one or two hairs, Rocket Man doesn't have much on the top of his head)

With Fanball's addition, the total list of playoff games we now track includes:

• Best Buy Weekly Playoff Fantasy Football Challenge
• CBS Sportsline.com Playoff Challenge
• Fanball Playoff Hold'em
• Pro Fantasy Sports - PFS Playoff Challenge
• Superbowl.com Playoff Challenge
• Sporting News / Fox Playoff Fantasy Football 2004-05
• Sporting News / Fox Playoff 3 for All Football

The points projection for 12 Patriot and 11 Eagle Offensive Players, both Kickers and Both Defenses will be up soon, so check back.

The Body Isn't Even Cold Yet

With the season over for 30 of the NFL teams, the rumor mills are running wild. Which Minnesota RB (Smith or Bennett) will be traded since Mewelde Moore will be starting next year. Speaking of starters, since Tatum Bell seems to have already locked up the starting role in Denver, what will happen to the other Bronco RBs. Will Randy Moss really end up with the Raiders along with Ricky Williams? Where will Travis Henry play, Miami maybe? Arizona? Or perhaps with Randy (and possibly Ricky) at Oakland?

I guess that there is some logic in doing this for the sake of the keeper leagues. Trying to follow all of this is worse than trying to keep track of the number of stupid comments Randy Moss makes. Frankly, I think it's just the fun of having something to talk about during the horribly long two weeks we have to spend waiting for the Super Bowl. I hope all of you are enjoying it, I know I sure am.

Our Championship Games Report Card.

Predicting the result of a playoff football game is difficult enough without trying to predict the performance of the actual players. As you know we try to do exactly that. In fact, for the Best Buy game we try to go to the tenth of a point.

So how did we do this past week?

Atlanta:
We provided point predictions for 8 players. All 8 fell within their +/- ranges.
Best predictions:
- Warrick Dunn - Predicted: 15.9, Actual: 16.3
- Brian Finneran - Predicted: 2.4, Actual: 2.9
Worst Predictions:
- T.J. Duckett - Predicted: 11.2, Actual 1.4
- Michael Vick - Predicted: 15.7, Actual 7.1

New England:
There were 12 NE players for whom we projected, of those 10 wew within their +/- ranges. The other two, Deion Branch and David Givens, scored well above their projected figures.
Best predictions:
- Tom Brady - Predicted: 12.3, Actual: 16.9
- Troy Brown - Predicted: 1.4, Actual: 1.1
Worst Predictions:
- Deion Branch - Predicted: 6.6, Actual 35.3
- David Givens - Predicted: 6.7, Actual 15.9
(I guess if you are going to miss it's better to project low, after all, who could have predicted these performances, especially against the Steelers D)

Philadelphia:
We projected 10 Eagles point totals. Of those 10, 8 were within their +/- range. Once again, the two that were out of range, Dorsey levens and Chad Lewis, both scored out of range high.
Best predictions:
- Donovan McNabb - Predicted: 20.2, Actual: 19.2
- Freedie Mitchell - Predicted: 3.5, Actual: 2.0
Worst Predictions:
- Chad Lewis - Predicted: 3.5, Actual 22.0
- Brian Westbrook - Predicted: 20.4, Actual 13.5

Pittsburgh:
Out of 10 player point forecast, 8 were again within their +/- range. As with the Patriots and Eagles, the two that were outside of their range (Roethlisberger and Ward) were both outside on the high side.
Best predictions:
- Antwaan Randle El - Predicted: 5.0, Actual: 5.2
- Plaxico Burress - Predicted: 10.0, Actual: 13.7
- Jerome Bettis - Predicted: 12.4, Actual: 16.4
Worst Predictions:
- Hines Ward - Predicted: 10.6, Actual 21.9
- Ben Roethlisberger - Predicted: 12.4, Actual 22.0

And finally, the Kickers:
A. Vinatieri - Predicted: 10, Actual 12.9
D. Akers - Predicted: 9, Actual 9.5
J. Reed - Predicted: 8, Actual 9.3
J. Feely - Predicted: 6, Actual 3.3

Best Buy and the Super Bowl Lull

With two weeks between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl there is a tendency to forget about the Best Buy Playoff game. Doc's advice? Start setting up you teams now.

As the playoffs have unfolded, we have gone from 8 teams playing in the Wild Card and Divisional weeks to 4 playing this past week to only two remaining. However, the roster size of the Best Buy team you are to pick remains the same. 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, and 1 K.

On QB you choices are either Brady or McNabb. Likewise for Kicker you have only Akers or Vinatieri from which to pick

However, for the other positions, it gets a lot trickier. For RBs your the possible choices go roughly 3 or 4 deep for each team (i.e. Westbrook, Levens, Mahe, and Parry for the Eagles. Dillon, Faulk, and Pass for the Patriots). Same for the WRs (Patten, Givens, Johnson , and Branch for NE. Mitchell, Pinkston, and G. Lewis for Philadelphia).

At TE, you can pick between Smith, C Lewis, Graham, and Fauria.

Note that as of now Terrell Owens, who might play, is not listed as an option while Chad Lewis, who is injured, can be drafted.

Now there may be more choices out there for the RBs, WRs, and TEs but these are the ones we have confirmed so far. With all the players to pick from the odds of getting the players you want, say Dillon and Westbrook, with one pick are not that great. So what should you do?

First, start picking your lineups now. If you are not happy with the options you had to choose from, you have got 9 or 10 more chances to get a better roster.

Second, as I told you earlier in the season, you can, within the rules establish multiple accounts as long as each one is in the name of a different family member, 18 or over, with their own individual email (easy to set up at hotmail). These must be real individuals.

Between these two methods, you can significantly increase you chances of being able to draft exactly the players you want on your team.

Later this week we will post our projected point totals for Best Buy as well as the other playoff leagues. In the meantime, we'll keep you up to date on the draftable players we see on the Best Buy site, as well as if there are any changes.

Conference Championship Final Countdown

Today's Final Countdown is now active on the member side.

Another Best Buy Playoff League Hint +

You can still change your lineup one or two more times before tomorrow's games. We have provided a number of hints towards how the game is structured. Of course, as the number of teams dwindles, the game changes a bit.

Our point projections on the member side show that McNabb, Vick, Westbrook, and Dunn are projected to be the top point earners. TO would be in there as well were he not injured. This should come as no surprise given the defensive strengths over in the Pittsburgh - NE game.

Obviously, this information is useful in selecting players, but are there any extra hints that might be useful?

How about this? When picking a QB, only three choices appear. That means you will have the chance for either Vick or McNabb at a minimum. Sometimes both will appear.

For RB, the choices get a little more varied. Any combination or Westbrook, Dunn or Dillon should be good. With two sets of three playbooks to pick from, you almost always pick one, one of these three between the two sets sometimes both.

WR gets a little more difficult. Ward, Burress and Patton are rated as the top WRs with TO out. But we think Freddie Mitchell will be one of the top ones this weekend. Remember that his projected numbers are based on his season participation average, not the playing time since taking over for TO.

Now Best Buy has a lot of WRs to pick from, everyone from those listed above through Bethel Johnson and Michael Jenkins (from THE Ohio State University). As a result you don't always have a great choice for one or both of the WR positions. We'll tell you what to do about that in a minute.

TE - Crumpler or L.J. Smith would seem to have the best possibilities this week. Once again Best buy look like they are going two deep on the lineups to increase the number of possible choices, so you may not see either of these guys in your three playbooks.

As for Kickers, our choices are, Vinatieri with 10 projected and Akers with 9. As with the QBs there are only four possible choices. So, you are guaranteed to see at least one of these names in your three playbooks.

Back to the WRs. First, while McNabb and Vick are the top two Best Buy QBs, realize that most of Vick's points come from his rushing yards (remember, we told you the Best Buy scoring system favors the running QB slightly). This means that the just because Vick is one of the top two projected Best Buy scoring QBs, his receivers are not the beneficiary of those points. So I would stay clear of the ATL WRs.

Also, given the fairly random order of the Best Buy system, the best option seems to be to redo your team until you get what you think is the best possible lineup (mostly those names listed above). You can change once a day The Best Buy day is defined as 1:00AM Eastern - 12:59 AM Eastern (10:00PM Pacific - 9:59 Pacific). For the future, (especially those of you us out west try to set up you team before 10:00 PM. It will buy you one extra change prior to the games should you need it.


PS. The Final Countdown Will Start Tomorrow Morning 90 Minutes Prior to the First Game. (1:30 PM Eastern, ... Awesome Dude, that's like 10:30 in the A.M.out here, time for you to catch some waves first)

Some Early Player Updates

Both Doc and Mister2 are traveling today so you'll have to put with my posting, which has neither 2's insight or Doc's sweetness and warmth. So here we go:

Pittsburgh - New England

• Sources are reporting that Pittsburgh LB Kendrell Bell will likely only play a limited role against New England. He is officially listed as Probable on the latest injury report, but don't look for him to start.
• Meanwhile, Patriots DE Richard Seymour, who missed another practice, and FB Patrick Pass are both listed as Questionable

In the "Battle of the Birds"

• Eagles LB practiced but Mark Simoneau remains officially Questionable (we are expecting him to play).
• As expected, Philadelphia WR Terrell Owens is listed as Out for Sunday's game.
• Falcons DE Travis Hall, CB Kevin Mathis, and Todd Weiner are all Questionable.

We Have A Winner

Props to Matt W. of Groveport, OH for being the first one to figure out the reason that number of passing plays and receivng plays may or may not be the same.

Most of you focused on either the individual receivers or guessed that the difference was in the incompletions. Sadly for everyone but Matt, (or at least prior to Matt) neither is the case.

When we determine player participation percents for a receiver, we take his number of receptions and divide it by all the total number of passing attempts whether they were complete or incomplete (statistically, the number of passes attempted).

For a quarterback, however, we determine the number in a slightly different manner. We calculate total passing plays as the number of attempts (completions + incompletions) plus the number of sacks. Why? Because a QB doesn't get sacked unless he is attempting to throw the ball.

As to the reason behind this, let's look at a QB who comes into a game, runs three passing plays, and gets sacked all three times. Technically he has no official passing attempts, yet there are three plays that he was involved in that are not running plays either.

As for the WRs, we don't count sacks against them because the ball we never thrown.

So, if there are no sacks against a given team during a game, the number of passing plays will be the same as the number of passing attempts which in turn equals the number of receiving plays. There, Got it?

Again congrats Matt. We'll be contacting you shortly to get your membership set up. As for the rest of you, we appreciate your response. Keep your eyes open, we may just be handing out a few more free memberships in the near future.

No Contest Winner Yet

Last night I snuck a contest into my post just to see how many of you took the time to read the whole thing. The prize? A free membership to StatLeader, good through the 2005-2006 football season. Now, this isn't the "Free Thru the Playoffs" membership we have been offering over the past few weeks. This is a full year, 2005 Draft Package, Complete Season of stats, recommendations, and commentary membership.

Well, apparently a lot of you actually took the time to read the entire thing as I received an amazing number of responses. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it), all of them wrong.

The question had to do with player participation percent. No more details on the question (those of you that have not seen it yet have to suffer through the post just like those that did). One hint on the answer. It has nothing to do with the actual number of plays each individual receiver was involved in (the most common response).

Again, send your answer to docbitters@statleader.com. Good luck and keep trying.

What Our Scoring System Means.

A lot of new visitors have taken advantage of our "Free Thru The Playoffs" Membership (still available). In joining, there are frequent questions as to what are the most important values that we calculate. While there are some detailed discussions on the values contained in the member side, here is a brief list of what some of these numbers are and how to use them.

• Projected Points - Obviously #1 on the hit list. This number is calculated based on the players performance in all previous games in which he has played. It represents what we project to be his game points earned assuming his normal level of participation. In other words Peyton Manning is assumed to be playing the entire game while James Mungro isn't. We adjust numbers based on the injury reports but, at this time, leave it to you to know if a backup will be playing the entire game in place of a regular.
• Consistency Factor - One of Rocket Man's math marvels. It lets you know just how good a player is at producing a given number of points regularly. Remember, a player who scores exactly 30 points every week (Consistency Factor of 100) and a player who scores 0 one week and 60 the next (don't ask) both have the same average, but which one is worth more?
• +/- Range - While we project a specific number of points for a given player, we realize that his actual score will usually be in some range around that score (hopefully higher). The Range value is another indication of how likely the player is to score the predicted number of points. The tighter the range, the greater the chance the actual score will be close to the predicted value. If you are a gambler, you might want to take a chance on a big range and hope for the big points.
• Participation Percent - Indicates the percent of the teams rushing, passing, or receiving plays in which a player is involved. No, the total number of passing plays does not always equal the total number of receiving plays (although sometimes it does). Why? Well, let's see if you are still paying attention. The first one to email me at docbitters@statleader.com with the correct answer will get a free membership next year. (Rocket Man, you are not eligible)

Remember, all of our calculations used league specific scoring systems, are based on week-by-week stat totals, and take into account our copyright method for determining a weekly fantasy points allowed rating for rushing, passing, receiving, and kicking for all 32 defenses.

How good are we? Well, football is by nature unpredictable but how about this. Last week for Best Buy, we predicted:

• Pit QB Ben Roethlisberger 12.2 points - Actual 14.0
• Jets RB Curtis Martin 11.7 points - Actual 10.6
• Jets RB LaMont Jordan 3.3 points - Actual 3.6 (So between the two Jets RB we predicted a total of 15.0 points. They earned 14.2)
• Phi RB Brian Westbrook 20.5 points - Actual 21.7
• NE QB Tom Brady 18.8 points - Actual 20.4
• Stl WR Torry Holt 14.4 points - Actual 14.2.
  

Of course there were those where we didn't come quite so close, say, for example, the entire Colts team. Who could have predicted that? After watching the Colts implode again at NE, I was afraid to even look at how we did. Yet despite only scoring 3 points, of the 8 Colts players we listed (Pyatt did not play), 5 (James, Stokley, Clark, Pollard, and Rhodes) were within their +/- Range, 1 (Harrison) was 0.6 points outside low, and 1 (Wayne) was just 1.4 points outside low. Only Mr. Manning was significantly (4.9 points low) outside the range. All-in-all, not too bad (Rocket Man, you job is safe for another week).

How will we do this week? We'll have the predictions posted a little later in the week. Come back and check 'em out.

Sunday's Final Countdown is Active

The Final Countdown is now active on the member side (still free to join) with the latest player updates.

Divisional Playoff Final Countdown is Active

Saturday's Divisional Playoff Final Countdown is now active over on the member site. Once again, it's free to join for the rest of the playoffs.

Final Countdown Preview - Some Early Player News

The Final Countdown will be active 90 minutes prior to the start of tomorrow's Jets - Steelers game. That's 3:00 PM Eastern, or Noon on the Left Coast, or 10:00 AM in Hawaii, or 7:00 AM Sunday in Australia. (Yes we do have members Down Under).

Meanwhile, in early player news:

• Jets QB Quincy Carter is Out of tomorrow's game. Brooks Bollinger will backup Chad Pennington.
• No surprise that Phi WR Terrell Owens has officially been listed as Out of the Eagles - Vikings game.
• Pit RB Jerome Bettis is the probable starter tomorrow although Deuce Staley will play as well. With Bettis starting and likely being used in goal line situations, he appears to be the better choice.
  

Tune in to The Final Countdown tomorrow for more.

Manning Mud Machine Meanwhile More Moss Moon Maddness

The Patriots have left theit field uncovered during the snow and rain in New England in what has been reported as an attempt to slow down Peyton Manning and the Indy offense. Forget it, the Colts could probably score 50 points playing in quicksand.

Meanwhile, in Minnesota, Mr. Moss got fined $10,000 for his childish response to the GB Fans. Man, what a huge punishment.That'll show 'em. No sir, he'll never do that again.

$10,000. Sounds like a lot. Well, let's put it in perspective. In 2004 Moss' salary was roughly $5,750,000. In terms of an average person making say $50,000/year, Moss' fine would be equivalent to about $86.96. Yep, pretty strong stuff . I'll bet he really felt the shock from that one. Of course the big difference between Moss and a regular guy like us is that after the fine, Moss still has $5,740,000 left over.

Come on NFL, enough of the token punishments. Let's face it, you could hit some of these guys $1,000,000 penalty and they would hardly notice it. ("Honey, better start clipping coupons, were going to have to live on only $4.75 Million this year.") Just remember the story about the farmer whose donkey wouldn't move until he hit it over the head with a 2x4. When asked why he did that, the farmer replied simply, "Had to get it's attention first."

Just a Reminder...and It's Free

We usually don't brag a lot (OK maybe a little) but as more and more of you discover StatLeader, we thought the following story might be interesting.

Not long ago our chief web guru Johnny Wishbone was involved in a conversation with a potential member. The member asked Johnny why he should spend his hard earned money to join StatLeader.

Well, Johnny preceeded to generally tell him how members have access to our fantasy predictions as well as The Final Countdown which provides last minute game information that could be crucial to determining his lineup.

The prospective member replied that he could already al lot of this on the web for free, so why should he pay us for it.

Johnny pointed out that getting this information would require going to many sites, we do all that for you.

"Agreed" said the perspective member, "But what I really need is a site that does a statistical analysis of things like scoring trends, participation factors, consistency, and the like for individual leagues."

"We do all that" replied Johnny. He then proceeded to go over the items we calculate and the general methods we use. By the time Mr. Wishbone was finished, our perspective member was not only ready to join but offered to invest a significant amount of cash in the company.

What do we do that is so great? How about this. Our member site currently provides you with the following League Specific data:

• Projected weekly points
• +/- Range relative to the projected weekly points
• Player Rating
• Total Points Scored to Date
• Consistency Factor
• Average Points per Game
• Rushing % - Past 3 weeks
• Receiving % - Past 3 weeks
• Passing % - Past 3 weeks
• Participation Trend (up, level or down)
• Analysis of individual league scoring systems.
  

Additionally, we use our copyright formulas to calculate many values you don't see to get the posted information. Values such as:

• Rushing, Passing, and Receiving percents for the most recent week and the entire season
• Total Participation (all offensive plays) for the most recent week, past three weeks, and season.
• Pont for the past three weeks
• Scoring Trends for the past three weeks and the entire season
• Average points per game, only for games played in
• Fantasy Kicking Points Allowed
• Defensive Fantasy Points Allowed
• and many more.

All of this done weekly based on the individual scoring systems of each league we track. By the way, as we continue to expand, you'll start to see more of these numbers posted.

In the meantime, you can get access to the data we de currently offer for the rest of the playoffs. And best of all, it's Free. Just look at the top right side of the page, under the picture of our young spokeswoman Susan, and click on the Free Membership link.

We're Adding Another League

We are pleased to announce that we will be adding Pro Fantasy Sports' PFS Playoff Challenge to the list of postseason fantasy games we cover.

Watch for Rocket Man's analysis of their scoring system and check back soon for our projection on all the leagues we follow.

Post-Sunday Thoughts

With week 1 of the playoffs complete, several thoughts are rolling around ol' Docs head (probably cause there's not much else up there to stop them). Here's a few things I expect to see this weekend:.

• More of the Jets Martin - Jordan dual running back attack. I provides them with an extra dimension needed in the playoffs, However, it does split the fantasy points.
• The Steelers returning to their own dual running back attack, Staley - Bettis. Both have been a little dinged up so no sense having one carry the burden. The Bus will probably do more than just goal line work, spelling Staley and making him the better Fantasy Football pick of the two.
  
• Antwaan Randal El is proven not to be the son of Jor-El by returning to the #3 WR position now that Plaxico Burress is back.
  
• The Eagles imploding without TO.
• Vikings RB Moe Williams on the sidelines.
• Randy Moss in between the sidelines playing as usual, but with a lighter wallet.

Speaking of Mr. Moss, his end zone celebration once again proves how incredibly crass some of these narcissistic emotionally underdeveloped imbeciles can be. Whether it is cell phones, having you teammates act like they are taking pictures of you, or dishonoring you opponent's name with an implied full Moon rub, you only serve to show the rest of the world what a fool you are.

We try to teach our young athletes sportsmanship. We look down on a high school or college team that dances on their opponent's 50 yard line emblem. Well Randy, in one minute you complicated the life of every coach working with younger athletes. You see, they look up to you. They want to be like you. Not for the millions of dollars you make, but because they love the game, the team. So what did their idol teach them?
How about this:

1. Respect for one's opponent, being a gracious winner, class, they all mean nothing.
2. Teamwork means nothing as well, it's all about me.
3. Having money and talent absolves you of any responsibility to act in a decent respectable manner.

It's too bad Ryan Longwell didn't happen to standing back there so he could have kicked you in the...Moon. Just know that for every person that thought you were the coolest thing around (unfortunately most too young to know better), there are thousands of us that think you are just an absolute...Moon.

And Yahoo Too

In my post on our NASCAR activities, I forgot to list the Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racing league as one that we will be covering. So now you know the rest of the story. (with apologies to Paul Harvey)

Sunday Final Countdown is Active

Today's Final Countdown is now active on the member side. (Remember, it is free to join for the rest of the Football season)

NASCAR in February

Many of you know that StatLeader will provide our unique brand of statistical analysis for NASCAR Fantasy Auto Racing starting next month. Games we are planning on supporting at this time include:

From nascar.com:

• NASCAR Fantasy Cap Challenge
• NASCAR Superstar Fantasy Cup Challenge
• Ultimate NASCAR Fantasy League
• Streak to the Finish
• Second Season Fantasy Cap Challenge
• Title Chase Challenge

CBS Sportsline.com

• Fantasy Racing Challenge 2005

ESPN.com

• ESPN Stockcar Challenge
  

From fantasycup.com

• 2005 Fantasy Cup Auto Racing Nextel Challenge
• 2005 Spring Challenge
  
• 2005 Fall Challenge
• The Homestead One Race Challenge
• March Motor Madness
• The Chase for the Fantasy Cup

Email me if there are other leagues you would like to see us support and we will check them out.

As for Football, don't worry, we'll still provide regular coverage throughout the year.

Saturday's Final Countdown

Just a reminder that today's Final Countdown will start at 3:00 Eastern.

Some Early Outs...Ins

Some early news:

• NE CB Ty Law was placed on the IR, ending his season.
• GB WR Robert Ferguson will be out vs. the Vikings despite having returned to practice.
• Min RB Michael Bennett has been named the starter for this weeks game.
• SEA WR Jerry Rice is expected to start against the Rams.

Be sure to check The Final Countdown starting at 3:00 Eastern (Dude, that noon in LA) Saturday.

Playoff League Scoring Systems

With the end of the regular season games, several Fantasy Football game providers have launched into their playoff contests. At this time, StatLeader is following 5 such games Sportsline.com Playoff Challenge, Superbowl.com Playoff Challenge, Fox/Sporting News' Playoff Fantasy Football 2004-05 and Playoff Three for All, and finally Best Buy's Weekly Playoff Fantasy Football Challenge.

Some of these have the same scoring systems as their regular season counterparts and some don't. So let's look at each of them quickly.

Sportsline.com and Superbowl.com Playoff Challenge games are basically the same game. (The former from CBS and the latter from the NFL). The scoring system used here is exactly the same as the regular season Sportsline.com and NFL.com fantasy games during the regular season.

The Fox/Sporting News Playoff Fantasy Football 2004-05 uses the same scoring system as their "Basic" game during the regular season. Remember, the F/SN Basic and Ultimate games use the same system except that Basic does not include Kickers while "Ultimate" does. So, if you played in their Ultimate game, your offensive and defensive schemes are the same, just no Kickers.

OK, that's the easy stuff out of the way.

F/SN's Playoff Three for All Football uses the following scoring method:

• Rushing, Passing, or Receiving Yards - 1 Point/Yard.
• Rushing, Passing, Receiving, or Kick or Punt Return TDs - 60 points.
  

Notice there are no Kickers or Defenses. The important information here is that QB passing yards are scored the same as rushing and receiving yards. Under most regular season scoring systems, you need 2.5 to 3 times as many passing yards as rushing or receiving yards to earn the same amount of points. Why is this? Because QBs normally throw for 2-3 times as many yards as a running back or receiver will earn.

The same situation exists with the TD value where again a passing TD has been put on the same level as all others. Again in most regular season leagues, a passing TD is not worth as much as a rushing or receiving TD.

The effect of this is that your QB will easily be your highest point scorer. Additionally, it removes the scoring advantage that a running QB such as Michael Vick would have over someone such as Peyton Manning. (Note: While Manning has been the top QB under most [not all] scoring systems, running QBs have kept close to him since for every rushing TD they score, Peyton has to toss roughly two. For every rushing yard they get, Peyton has to throw for about 2.5). Under the Three for All system, that's gone, so make you QB pick very carefully.

Finally, the Best Buy Weekly Playoff Fantasy Football Challenge scoring system. There are several changes here. They are:

• Rushing and Receiving Yards go from 1 point/10 yards to 0.1 point/yard
• Passing Yards go from 1 point/25 yards to 0.1 point for every 3 yards
• Field Goals go from 3 pts 0-39 yds, 4 points 40-49 yards, 5 points 50+ yards to 0.1 point/FG yard.
• No Defenses
• No Salary Cap

The result of all this is as follows:

1. Higher overall scores (Players who previously received 8 points for 89 rushing yards will now get 8.9.
2. Slighly lower scoring from the passing QB. As Doc noted yesterday a QB who passes for 300 yards would get 12 points under the regular season system but only 10 from this system. This makes the running QB a little bit more valuable.
3. For FGs over 30 yards this will raise the average score as indicated up in #1. A pair of 39 yarders will earn a kicker 7.8 points under the new system vs. 6 under the old one. The down side? A 20 yard field goal will only earn 2.0 points. The 0.1 pt/ FG Yard can have a pretty big hit on Booters who make a lot of short kicks such as Nate Kaeding and Morten Andersen both of whom had exactly 1/2 of the field goals from less than 30 yards.

So there it is. A brief analysis of the five scoring systems. There is some rumor floating around that we might ad one more (you'll have to check back to see if and who). Until then, best of luck this weekend.

The Weeks Final Countdown Schedule

Since there are games both Saturday and Sunday, The Final Countdown will be with you both ah...Saturday...and...Sunday.

We'll be active on the member side (Yes, it's still free to join, with no catches [kind of like the University of MeatChicken WRs against Ohio State] ) starting at 3:00 Eastern (Noon Pacific) on Saturday and at our regular time of 11:00 AM Eastern (8:00 AM out west) on Sunday. As usual we'll hang around until the start of the last game on both days. Be sure to check in regularly for the latest in player information.

You Didn't Really.....? Yes We Did.....Really

With the fantasy football playoff games now active, new scoring system have raised their ugly little heads. As you might recall, we let you know that we were adding these new systems into our calculation routines. When we do this it involves recalculating every players fantasy points for every game of the season. How detailed are we? Well, for Best Buy the kickers scoring system switched from 3 points for a field goal less than 40 yards, 4 points 40-49 yards, and 5 points 50+ yards to 0.1 Point per Field Goal Yard.

Did we really go back and get the exact yardage of every field goal in every game for every one of the playoff kickers and calculate their points for the entire season based on this system? We sure did. Why, cause you, our members, deserve our best effort.

Speaking of scoring system changes and new games, check back ths evening as Rocket Man is going to post his analysis of the playoff scoring systems for the 5 different games we will be tracking.

Those #%!*&"@$^%# Playoff Kickers

The StatLeader Playoff Kicker point projections will soon be (or have recently been) posted over on the member side. (YES, it is still free to join). Here are some important notes relative to those loveable booters.

• Only three playoff games (Sportsline.com Playoff Challenge, Superbowl.com Playoff Challenge and Best Buy Weekly Fantasy Football Playoff Challenge). Sporting News / Fox players are spared this torture.(Why do they all use the word "Challenge"?)
• Kickers are difficult to predict since they so dependant on how the offense performs. I.E. If Peyton throws 6 TDs, old Mike V. isn't going to get too many Field Goals.

In our point forcasting, we use both the players average performance pus a StatLeader Copyright special, the Fantasy Kicking Points Allowed value for the team that the kicker is going against.

• Example - Based on the Best Buy scoring system, for every 100 Fantasy kicking points allowed by an average team, the NY Jets have allowed only 65.9 this season while Saint Louis has given up 128.2.
• Why? Lots of possible reasons. In some cases teams with higher Fantasy Kicking Points do not allow as many TDs but instead force their opponent into kicking more Field Goals.

So once again, here are our best estimates of kicker performance for this week. Our advice? Pick the best one in you league and hope for a lot of stalled drives on the other guys 30 yard line.

More Best Buy Hints

Here are a few more hints that might help you in the Best Buy Playoff Fantasy Football Challenge.

Hint 4:

• We noted yesterday that you can change your lineup once per day. Despite the "forever pass" wording for released players listed in the rules, they simply go back into the available player pool. (We released Daunte Culpepper and were able to draft him back when he appeared on the one of the new playbooks).

Hint 5:

• One of the main gimics of the game is that players playbooks come up in a random order. For example, if Peyton Manning followed Daunte Culpepper when you picked your original team, it is not likley that Manning will be next playbook should Culpepper again appear when you change your lineup.

Hint 6:

• The regular season Best Buy scoring system awarded 1 point for every 25 passing yards. In the playoff system you get 0.1 point for every 3 yards. During the regular season 10 yards earned 1 point, in the post season it is 0.1 point per yard.
  
• What does this mean? Well, under the old system a QB with 20 rushing yards and 300 passing yards woul have earned 14 points (2 for rushing and 12 for passing). Under the playoff system he would only get 12 points (2 for rushing and 10 for passing yards). This basically places a slightly stronger emphasis on the QBs running game.

We'll have the point projections up for you soon.

No, We Have Not Forgotten The Rest of You

As our previous post indicated we will be providing stat analysis based on the Best Buy Playoff scoring system. In addition, we will also be providing our customized ranking for the following playoff games:

• CBS Sportsline.com Playoff Challenge
• Superbowl.com Playoff Challenge
• Sporting News / Fox Playoff Fantasy Football 2004-05
• Sporting News / Fox Playoff 3 for All Football

And you thougth we forgot you....................not a chance.

Best Buy Weekly Playoff Fantasy Football Challenge

Most of you are probably aware that now that the Best Buy regular season has ended, they have started a Weekly Playoff Fantasy Football Challenge game (55 weekly prizes - same site / same user ID as the regular season game). We are in the process of entering the new scoring system for this game into our statistical analysis routines will hopefully have the data posted in a couple of days. Additionally, we will post some helpful hints on how to work the game.

Hint 1:

• You pick your lineup by clicking on the playbooks at the top of the page. You will see four playbooks for any given position.
• The first playbook will open automatically. You can draft or release the player shown.
• If you choose "Draft Player" you will be shown the remaining choices but you can't change your selection (at least not until the next day).
• If you pick "Release Player" the playbook closes and you are shown the next player.
• Should you release the first three players, you must draft the remaining player to continue.
• Once you have filled out your roster your choices are summerized and you are informed that you can switch players on the next day.

Hint 2:

• The instructions state that once you pass on a release a player you have "forever" passed on that player. We are still trying to determine the exact meaning of "forever" (i.e. for the day or the week)

Hint 3:

• The rules also state that once you have decided to change a player, the entire roster is cleared and you must create a complete new roster. Also, any previous roster is "permanently forfeited". Again, we are trying to the exact meaning of the wording, whether that means that you can't use the exact roster, or if it means that each player on the roster, as an individual, may not be used again.

More hints will be presented as the week goes on (and as Rocket Man finishes his analysis of the scoring system). We hope to have some answers later tonight or early tomorrow on roster changes. We would recommend waiting until we provide the roster information to set up you team.

We are Here for the Playoffs (and the Rest of the Year)

We know that today marks the end of the season for most of you, however, The Final Countdown will continue throught the playoffs.

The staff of StatLeader wants to thank you for you support during our inagural year. Because of you, we far surpassed all membership projections we made last summer. Please know we will be here all year and will continue to publish player updates and information daily.

We are tremendosly excited about the 2005 season as we plan to offer significantly expanded stat analyses, IDP stats, more commentary, recommendations and updates, and an Out of This World Draft Package.

Additionally,we will be providing NASCAR Fantasy stat analyses for the 2005 Nextex Cup Series starting next month.

So once again, THANKS and HAPPY NEW YEAR

Week 17 Final Countdown

Week 17's Final Countdown is active on the Member side. Sign up now, it's free.