Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #8

Sleepers

Every year several players emerge from some level of obscurity to grab both the NFL's and almost every Fantasy Football league's attention. Known as "sleepers", these players can have a significant impact on your championship hopes. A couple of years ago I managed to pick up sleeper who, at the time. was playing behind Cory Dillon. This guy, what was his name again? .... oh yeh, Rudi Johnson, helped me to both a regular season and league championship.

So who are this years biggest potential sleepers?

QB:

The concensus seems to be Houston's David Carr. The combination of Coach Kubiak, a revamped O-line, and the addition of some fellows who can catch the ball (Moulds and Putzier)

Backup Sleepers: Detroit's Jon Kitna and Washington's Jason Campbell

Almost Comatose: Jeff Garcia

RB:

The overall pick here seems to be Denver's Ron Dayne. Why, the running game in Denver. Need we say more? I still like GB's Samkon Gado as well. He opened some eyes last year and Green's durability is suspect.

Backup Sleepers: SF's Frank Gore and Minnesota's Chester Taylor

Almost Comatose: Pittsburg's Duce Staley (May be this year's Bettis getting the TDs after Parker does all the work)

WR:

First up here would be Eagle's WR Reggie Brown. With T.O. gone and given his performance at the end of last season, we think he poised for ... well maybe not greatness, but close.

Backup Sleepers: Atlanta's Ronnie White and the Bengal's Chris Henry

Almost Comatose: Cleveland's Braylon Edwards (Has the talent, but on the down side has Charlie Frye and went to the University of MeatChicken)

TE:

We'll go with NO's Zach Hilton. He established himself last year and we expect him to keep going.

Backup Sleeper: Cleveland's Kellen Winslow (if he can check the attitude at the door and stay healthy)

Almost Comatose: Denver's Tony Scheffler (We don't have a lot of confidence in Pollard and see Scheffler with a chance to make the job his)

Kickers:

Who else, product of THE Ohio State University, Jets Mike Nugent. After adjusting to the NFL last year we expect the Jets to reap the same benefits the Buckeyes did. NY's offense is suspect but this can sometimes present a kicker with more opportunities.

Bottom Line:

Sleepers are generally Sleepers for a reason. That reason? They are not expected to do that well. There is risk involved in picking them, but the rewards can be well worth it.

Next up: Comeback Kids

Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #7

The Rookies:

The top rookies for this year are.... Never mind. We already know their names. The question is not how they rank by potential, but how they will actually perform. It seems every season there are two or three can't misses that end up in NFL obscurity.

You may recall last year all the talk about J.P. Losman. To listen to some of the "experts" as well as many of the Bill's fans, Losman was the second coming of, well, fill in your own great QB name.

We warned you about picking Losman. We told you that even the greatest QBs spoke of how difficult the game is as a rookie. We watched Losman in a preseason scrimmage against Green Bay and saw a game full of "deer in the headlights" plays from him. We even went so far as to tell you not to pick up Losman because by mid-season Kelly Holcomb would be starting.

What did we get back? Angry comments from those poor deluded individuals who actually believed all the Losman hype.

The final 2005 count? Losman: 1340 passing yards, 8 TDs; Holcomb: 1509 passing yards, 10 TDs.

Now, it's not that we didn't believe that Losman might some day be a good or even great QB, just not as a rookie. That brings us to the point of this post. Don't expect miracles from rookies. The game is different from college. Occasionally, one or two will emerge, but generally most of them are drafted to develop into great players, not to be instant an success.

What does this mean for your draft day?

Use care in determining how high a draft pic you want to use on a rookie, no matter how good he is supposed to be and no matter what the "experts" say about him. In most cases he will still have to get past or share time with one or two established starters.

For example:

A lot of "experts" are pushing Reggie Bush as a Second Round Fantasy Football choice. Yet with projections of somewhere around 1200 total yards, he barely makes the top 20 Running backs. Plus, because of his size, we expect Deuce McAllister to get more than his share of the Saint's goal line carries, taking points away from Bush.

Now we think Bush will be a good pick this year, but you need to ask yourself do you really want to risk a second round choice on a largely unknown quantity?

By the way, we'll have commentary on many of the rookies available as part of our pre-season draft package coming up soon.

Next Up: Some Sleepers

Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #6

Evaluating the "Mock Drafts"

As you do your preseason draft preparations, you are likely to come across several mock drafts. Now for those of you fairly new to Fantasy Football, a mock draft is one where the editors, staff and/or friends of a given publication or web site conduct a "simulated" draft, the results of which are then made available for your use.

So what factors do you need to take into consideration when looking at different mock draft results?

To start with, remember that the group doing the drafting (usually listed) will normally include several individuals not directly involved with the publication or web site conducting the draft. Including these "outsiders" gives you another perspective on the perceived value of the various players and prevents the result from being just a carbon copy of that organization's "Cheat Sheet"

Now, look at the overall structure of how players have been drafted. RB's first, then WRs etc. Keep an eye out for any players that seem to have been drafted out of place across most or all of the mock drafts (a 1st round QB, a 2nd or 3rd round TE, etc.). Most Mock Drafts will provide some sort of running commentary to explain any surprises that may have occurred. By combining the information here you might pick up some valuable hints.

Now the bad stuff:

First, most Mock Drafts do not tell you the scoring system they used as a basis, if any. You really can't tell what criterion was used by the mock team owners to prepare for the draft.

Second, to meet publication deadlines many of these mock drafts are held in March or April. Player information can change significantly between then and your draft day. (Note the inclusion or retired Jacksonville WR Jimmy Smith in several Mock Drafts, including NFL.com's).

Third, be sure to check on the number of owners in a given draft. In a 10 team draft, like ESPN.com's, the person with the #1 pick will draft #20, #21,#40, #41, etc. In a 12 team draft, #1 will also pick #24, #25, #48, #49 and so on. We noted above that by including "outsiders" in a group's mock draft could be an advantage. However, it can also confuse things as owners frequently "play a hunch", especially in later rounds.

Fourth, know how many players are being drafted at each position. That can change the anticipated value of a player even more.

While the player selection order across different Mock Drafts is usually pretty close in the first few rounds (take the first 20 picks in any draft and compare them to the top 20 in any other draft) they will vary more and more as you go further into draft. Unfortunately, this is where you need the help most. After all, does it really matter if you get LT, Larry Johnson, or Shaun Alexander? But what about Ben Roethlisberger or Curtis Martin?

Ultimately, don't put too much into the player order of any given Mock Draft. Use the information carefully and as only one piece in the scope of the overall picture.

Next up: A look at the Rookies.

Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #5

Draft Tip #4: Beware the Experts. (Part 3)

In Part 1 of "Beware the Experts", I posed the following three questions concerning the differences in how a player is ranked by different preseason Fantasy Football publications. (As we noted, these differences can be significant.)

1. Why the differences?
2. How do I know if I am ending up with a top-level starting player or Defense rather than one that should spend the season in the free Agent pool?
3. How many of these magazines do I have to buy at $7.99 or more to get a good idea what the real story is?

In my previous post (Draft Tip #4), I addressed the first question, now let's look at the remaining 2.

Question 2 (How do I know if I am ending up with a top-level starting player or Defense rather than one that should spend the season in the free Agent pool?):

There are four things that are of major importance in answering this question:

1. Use player rankings that are based on the most current information possible
2. Don't believe just one source's view of any given player
   
3. Make sure the rankings are based on a scoring system that is as close to yours a possible.
4. Keep checking player status on a regular basis.

As for the first of these, realize that Fantasy Football publications have it extremely difficult in that they have to finalize all their content along about April to be able to hit the newsstands by mid-June. As a result, their content can become extremely dated, especially with regards to injuries and personnel changes.

• I know of at least one publisher that pulls their mags off the shelf after one month, puts a new cover on them, and ships them out with exactly the same content inside (just a month older by now). Why? Because newsstands typically leave a mag on the shelf for only one month. The new cover makes it look like a new issue, and, surprisingly enough, people buy it.

Concerning item 2, we gave you an example last time of a certain player ranked #29 by ESPN.com and #63 by NFL.com. Who is right? Can't say. Could be one, the other, or neither. But, the thing that you can do is look at a bunch of rankings for this player. This will at least give you a better idea how the player is seen by a bunch of "experts" rather than just one or two.

• OR, you can sign up with us. We don't try to predict player participation. Rather we scan industry-wide rankings and put together a consensus participation factor. Our draft package is based on an overall view which we believe provides much more accurate rankings. (in other words, we do the legwork for you)

Item 3 can be a real pain to deal with as well. For example, if you are in a Yahoo Default league, having rankings based on one of ESPN's scoring systems may not do you much good (and that's assuming ESPN.com even uses one of their scoring systems for the rankings). Even if you do find one that uses your exact system, you're sort of stuck with their expert's views on player participation.

• The rankings in our draft package are based on the different major default scoring systems. We provide specific rankings for such systems as Yahoo, ESPN, CBS Sportsline, AOL, NFL.com, Sporting News, and Fox/MSN.

Item 4 is ultimately up to you. There are plenty of sites that provide daily player updates. The bottom line is that if Larry Johnson for goes down for 6 weeks in spring practice, he's not likely to be a top 5 draft pick no matter what the publications say. So stay as informed as you can, knowledge really is power.

Question 3 (How many of these magazines do I have to buy at $7.99 or more to get a good idea what the real story is?):

How many of the $8.00 mags should you buy? It really depends on how much money you have to spend and how much information you want to try to digest. Certainly those who are better informed generally have the basis for making better draft day choices. However, at some point the amount of info can become confusing and player recommendations can degenerate into nothing more than a contest between battling experts. (Look out, here comes another "or"...)

• OR, you can sign up with us. Not only will you get player rankings that are league specific and based on concensus participation levels, it is updated through the start of the season.

• In addition, you get a full season of the most accurate weekly point projections for over 600 players based on the same league specific scoring systems noted above.

• How much? Less than the cost of four of those newsstand mags. Yep, only $29.99 (Doesn't that look better than $30.00?) for a preseason draft package, individual point projections, for the entire season, and a whole lot more. Plus, keep an eye out for our sign-up special.
  

Check back for Part 6 of our Draft Tips where we will give you some thoughts on the 2006 Mock Drafts we have seen.

Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #4

Draft Tip #4: Beware the Experts. (Part 2)

In the last installment we looked at some of the disparity (For our University of Miami fans, that means "differences" * ) in the player ratings between two of the major Fantasy Football preseason publications. At the end of that article, I posed the following questions:

1. Why the differences?
2. How do I know if I am ending up with a top-level starting player or Defense rather than one that should spend the season in the free Agent pool?
3. How many of these magazines do I have to buy at $7.99 or more to get a good idea what the real story is?

To Answer Question 1:

There are two primary reasons for the differences in player ranking between different publications. Scoring System used and Projected Stats for the season.

Scoring System:

• Publications may or may not tell you what scoring system they used when determining their rankings. If the do tell you (which many won't), check to see how close it is to your system before you put too much faith in the rankings, it does make a difference. For example, running QBs (Culpepper, Vick, etc.) will rank higher in a system that awards 6 pts for a rushing TD and 3 for a passing than they will in a system that awards 6 points for both rushing and passing TDs.
  

Projected Stats:

• This one is entirely based on what the publication's panel of "Experts" believes a given player is likely to do. ESPN's projects their #29 receiver to have almost 27% more receptions and nearly 57% more yards than does NFL.com (who, by the way, ranks the same receiver as #63).
  

To add in a further dash of confusion, why is ESPN's #2 RB projected to have 120 more rushing yards, 21 more receptions, and 230 more receiving yards than their #1 RB?

• Sure #1 has 4 more projected TDs, but by ESPN's own scoring system, the projected values give #1 a total of 325 points while #2 would get 336 points. If you happen to be in a league that awards 1 point/reception, the difference is even greater.

So, Who's right? Who do you believe? Who do you pick? Your answers to these along with the answers to Questions #2 and #3 above are.....going to be in Part 3 of "Beware the Experts".

* The Miami comment:

• Those of you who have followed my posts in StatLeader know that as an Alumni of THE Ohio State University, I have little use for certain other alleged universities including the University of MeatChicken, the Knitting Lions of Penn State, Condom U (So. Cal.), The Blighting Irish, and of course, The Ewe (Eweniversity of Miami).

• Last Year I determined that the only reason Miami refers to themselves as the "U" is that they must have difficulty with the entire word. In fact, they still can't figure out that Miami starts with an "M" and that there should be an "M" on their helmets rather than a "U" (Utah, Urbana, ??). So to help the poor unfortunate Miami students and alumni, I have taken it upon myself to explain certain big words found in the text. (There, that should generate some interesting emails)

Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #3

Tip #3: Beware the Experts. (Part 1)

You have probably noticed that the Fantasy Football magazines have started to appear. Each one providing their prodigious prognostications, along with a bunch of generally useless information (come on now do I really need to be told for the 9th season in a row to draft running backs in the first round?).

The heart of these publications are the player rankings and cheat sheets. But how does the expert advice from these various knowledgeable sources stack up against each other. One would expect things to be fairly consistent across all the publications; after all they're all ranking the same players with the same stats, Right?

Well, let's look at two of the first Fantasy Football magazines to hit the stands, NFL.com's Fantasy Football 2006 Preview and ESPN.com's Fantasy Football 2006.

Wide Receivers:

• NFL.com's top 10 receivers rank 7, 2, 5, 1, 11, 10, 4, 17, 3, and 14 respectively in the ESPN publication. That's not too bad (OK, maybe a little) but what about when you get through the top tier receivers and are looking for a #2 or #3?
• ESPN's #13, 15, 21, 24, and 29 receivers rank 38, 30, 59, 62, and 63 respectively in NFL.com's list. Likewise, NFL.coms #14, 16, 17, 20 and 21 WRs come in at 23, 25, 30, 47, and 39 in the ESPN list.
  

Defenses:

• OK everyone knows Chicago has a great D and Oakland doesn't. But what about the rest. Well the agreement here is no better than it was on the WRs. ESPN's #4 defense only comes in at #18 on the NFL.com list. Additionally, #6, 8, and 12 on the ESPN list show up as #15, 17, and 24 on NFL.com.
• Not to be outdone, NFL.com's #4 D comes in at #28 (#28?) on the ESPN list. Likewise #7, 8, and 10 on the NFL.com list don't even make it into the top 17 over at ESPN.

This should bring about questions such as:

1. Why the differences?
2. How do I know if I am ending up with a top-level starting player or Defense rather than one that should spend the season in the free Agent pool?
3. How many of these magazines do I have to buy at $7.99 or more to get a good idea what the real story is?

The answer to question #3 in none. We'll tell you why and provide answers to the rest (and more) in Part 2 of "Beware of the Experts"

Ricky Williams Gains 97 in CFL Debut

So???

Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #2

Tip #2 is one of our recurrent themes. In fact, it is one of the cornerstones of our player performance analyses and projections we provide for your draft and for every week of the season. (And that would be?.......)

Know your scoring system.

Each game provider has subtle differences (and sometimes not so subtle ones) in their scoring systems as compared to the other game providers. Even within the same provider there are frequently different scoring options. (ESPN Traditional vs ESPN Performance vs ESPN Scoring vs ESPN Yardage). To complicate matters further, add in a commish who decides to customize.

Here is an example, a few years ago Mister2, Rocket Man, and I were in a league where the Commish used the Yahoo Default scoring system with one customization, he had Running Backs earn one point per carry.

Now, under the Yahoo default system, a RB earns one point for every 20 yards gained. Frankly, to most of us, this point per carry customization didn't seem like too much of a factor, at least not at first.

It didn't take Rocket Man long to figure out that a RB with 15 carries for 118 yards couldn't keep up with a RB with 28 carries for only 61 yards. (20 points for the former vs 31 points for the latter). So, Rocket Man stacked his RB position with guys that got lots of carries. The result, a 13-1 regular season (second place was at 10-4) and a playoff championship.

Even under default scoring understanding you system is critical. Here are just a few of the questions you need to be able to answer:

• Does your Defense lose points for all points scored by the other team, or only those actually scored against the defense (i.e. does not include such things as interceptions and fumbles returned for a TD by the other teams D)?
  
• Do Special Teams TDs go to the individual or the Defense?
  
• Does your scoring system favor a running QB or a passing one? Look at not only yardage points but also points awarded for a rushing TD (usually 6) vs. a passing TD (3, 4, or 6?).
  

Make sure you go in to your draft understanding every aspect of the scoring system and it's implication. And remember, we are here to help you.

Not only will we be providing our unique and highly accurate league specific projections and analysis for your draft and regular season, we'll give you more information throughout the season on many of the more subtle aspects of Fantasy Football. Plus, we'll have our forum available for questions, opinions, and information exchange. So stick with StatLeader all season long.

Roethlisberger Apologizes to Fans

In his first comments since crashing his motorcycle and undergoing seven hours of surgery, Ben Roethlisberger released a statement through the team Thursday in which he apologized to the Steelers, fans and his family, and said he was lucky to have survived.

"In the past few days, I've gained a new perspective on life," the Super Bowl winning quarterback said in a statement released just hours after he was discharged from a hospital. "By the grace of God, I'm fortunate to be alive ... "

Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #1

The 2006 Fantasy Football season is rapidly approaching. Like most other Fantasy Football based sites, this signals an increase in our activity level. For those of you that have never been to our site before, suffice it to say that we provide unique tools to help you perform your best in your Fantasy Football league. But more on that later.... Lets start with Tip #1 for the 2006 season.

TIP #1: The number of Bye Weeks have changed for the 2006 season.

• The NFL has gone from 8 Bye Weeks (3-10) to 7 (3-9). What does this mean for you?
• Weeks number 6 and 7 will have 6 teams on Bye rather than the standard 4.
  
• Week 6 Byes: Cleveland, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and New England.
• Week 7 Byes: Baltimore, Chicago, New Orleans, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Tennessee.

You'll really have to plan ahead to avoid problems with almost 20% of the league sitting at home each of these two weeks.

Roethlisberger Breaks Jaw, In Motorcycle Crash

The AP reports that Steelers star Ben Roethlisberger, the youngest quarterback to lead a team to the Super Bowl championship, broke his jaw and nose in a motorcycle crash Monday in which he was not wearing a helmet.

Roethlisberger was in serious but stable condition, Dr. Larry Jones, chief of trauma at Mercy Hospital said before surgery.

The player's agent, Leigh Steinberg, described the injuries to The Associated Press and said he did not know if there was further damage.

"He was talking to me before he left for the operating room," "He's coherent. He's making sense. He knows what happened. He knows where he is. From that standpoint, he's very stable."

Roethlisberger's mother, Brenda, was crying as she arrived at the hospital.

Roethlisberger Injured in Motorcycle Accident

NFL.COM Reports That Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was injured in a motorcycle crash and taken to a hospital.

"He was alert and conscious," said Ernie Roman, shift commander for the Allegheny County emergency service.

Steelers Dave Lockett, outside Mercy Hospital, confirmed the accident but did not provide additional details.

The 24-year-old Roethlisberger has said in the past that he prefers not to wear a helmet when riding his motorcycle.

Calls to Roethlisberger's agent, Leigh Steinberg, were not immediately returned. In only his second year in the NFL, Roethlisberger helped guide the Steelers to the Super Bowl championship last season.

Air McNair Is A Raven

Steve McNair signed with the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday and was introduced as their starting quarterback. The transaction ended an uncertain period for McNair, who had negotiated a five-year deal with Baltimore on April 30 but had to wait five weeks to be traded.

The Titans couldn't keep the three-time Pro Bowler unless he restructured his contract for less than what Baltimore was offering. Further aggravating the issue was newly drafted quarterback Vince Young of Texas, who was taken third overall in the April draft and is considered "the future" of the Titans.