Who's Out

The following players of note are already OUT for the 2006 season...yes, the whole season.

• Atlanta WR Brian Finneran (Knee)

• Jacksonville RB Greg Jones (ACL)
• Keep an eye on both LeBrandon Toefield and Alvin Pearman as they are the likely backups to "Fragile" Fred Taylor.

Also:

• Jets RB Curtis Martin will start the season on the PUP list. He is expected to miss at least the first six weeks of the season.
  
• While Derrick Blaylock is expected to fill in for Martin, watch Kevan Barlow who was recently acquired from the 49ers.

• Another situation worth watching is in Houston where Texans RB Domanick Davis is having significant knee problems. His status for Week 1 and beyond is in doubt.
• Antowain Smith, Wali Lundy, and Vernand Morency are all batteling for the #2 slot behind Davis.
  

• Also keep an eye in Colts K Adam Vinatieri who has a broken bone in his left (non-kicking) foot. He is still hopefull of playing in Week 1, but that could change.
  

Meanwhile, some Week 1 starters have been announced. They include:

• Jets QB Chad Pennington
• Bills QB J.P. Losman

It's What We Do, It's What We Are

We have been receiving a lot of questions from new visitors to our site as to exactly who we are and what we do. This will be much more obvious once our crack web team finishes "fine tuning" the new site (which I personally believe will happen in time for Week 1...of the 2014 season).

So lets start answering the top questions:

Who is StatLeader?

• We are an organization that provides weekly Fantasy Football player point projections for a variety of different scoring systems.
• We have a proprietary (protected) set of analysis routines that allows us to project how any given offensive player, kicker, or team defense will perform against their next opponent.
  

What type of information do you provide?

• Each week we will give you performance analysis on every NFL QB, RB, TE, WR, Kicker and Team Defense. This includes:
• Fantasy Points Earned for the week
  
• Total Fantasy Points earned for the season to that point
• Average Fantasy Points Earned
• Both for all games the team has played and only the games in which a given player actually participated
• Fantasy Points Allowed Rating of the next opponent
• Passing, Rushing, Receiving, Returns, Kicking
  
• A factor to measure just how consistent a player's/team's week-to-week scoring is
• An independent player/team rating value
• Projected points for the next game
• An uncertainty range so you can see just what to expect from your team
• Also, for QBs, RBs, TEs, and WRs we also provide
  
• Rushing, Receiving, Passing, and Total participation percents
• In addition to the stats, we also provide commentary, analysis, and player updates, including "The Final Countdown" our pre-game player status service.
  

Do you have a draft package?

• Sure do, in fact there are several packages, one for each of the default scoring systems we cover.
• Each package contains four seasons worth of the information I listed above plus a cheat sheet that ranks QBs, RBs, TEs, and WRs both individually and as a group.

What scoring systems do you cover?

• They are listed a little farther down in the posts, but primarily consists of the default scoring systems for the major game providers.

What if i have a customized system?

• We'll be able to handle just about any scoring system starting in 2007. In the meantime, you can check the default systems we cover to see if there is a close match.
  

Is this only for members?

• Pretty much.
  

How do I join?

• Sign up from the link marked...ahhh...Sign Up near the top of the page. The cost is just $19.99 for the year.

Who are you guys?

• A group of Fantasy Football nuts. StatLeader was started by a group of five, Mister2, Johnny Wishbone, Rocket Man, KirkC (gone but not forgotten...or is that forgotten but not gone, not sure which), and myself.
  
• We started operation in 2004 and since that time have been focusing on maturing our analysis capability and methods with a full-up operational goal of the 2007 season.
• We started in California (doesn't everything?) and opened an east coast office in 2005. This year we started a dedicated web development group in Texas.

Do you plan to expand to cover other fantasy sports?

• Yes.
  

What if I have other questions?

• Just email me at docbitters@statleader.com

ESPN Traditional and Performance Fantasy Football

Here are the 2006 scoring systemf for ESPN Traditional and ESPN Performance Fantasy Football:

Lets start with the ESPN Performance system:

Offensive:

Every 25 passing yards:	1 point
Each passing TD:	4 points
40+ yd passing TD bonus	2 points
Each interception thrown:	-2 points
Every 10 rushing yards:	1 point
Each rushing TD:	6 points
40+ yd rushing TD bonus	2 points
Every 10 receiving yards:	1 point
Each receiving TD:	6 points
40+ yd rec TD bonus	2 points
Each return TD:	6 points
Each Off Fum Ret TD:	6 points
Each 2-point conversion:	2 points
Each fumble lost:	-2 points

Kicking:

Field goal 0-39 yards:	3 points
Field goal 40-49 yards:	4 points
Field goal 50+ yards:	5 points
FG missed 1-39 yards:	-2 points
FG missed 40-49 yards:	-1 points
Each extra point:	1 point

Defensive:

Each sack:	1 point
Each interception:	2 points
Each fumble recovery:	2 points
Each TD:	4 points
Each safety:	2 points
Each blocked kick:	2 points
Shutout:	10 points
2-6 points allowed:	7 points
7-13 points allowed:	4 points
14-17 points allowed:	1 point
18-21 points allowed:	0 points
22-27 points allowed:	-1 points
28-34 points allowed	-4 points
35-45 points allowed	-7 points
46+ points allowed	-10 points

All points scored by the other team count against the defense.

The big difference in this system lies in the defenses. Two primary things:

1. Defensive TDs only earn 3 points
2. Fantasy Points allowed cost you points faster than other comperable leagues

Look for defenses that get lots of takeaways and sacks while keeping the score low. yardage allowed doesn't matter.

ESPN Traditional:

Just take the performance system and remove anything with zero or negative point value from the list above. That is:

• Interceptions Thrown
• Fumbles Lost
• Missed Field Goals and
• More than 17 Points Allowed

Meanwhile, don't forget that the cheat sheets for the QBs, RBs, TEs, and WRs are available on the site. Also, if you need the full package for the scoring systems above or any of the other ones cover (see our earlier posts) just email me at rocketman@statleader.com. Be sure to let me know which of our available game scoring systems you a requesting.

Draft Package Up (Sort of)

After fighting to recover from the total destruction and devastation of our database by evil unknown forces our crack web team has been spending endless hours, sacrificing their own personal time to put at least part of the draft package up on the site.

The preseason rankings and point projections for the games and scoring systems we track are over at Draft Central under Player Projections. However, in struggling to recreate the database, our wondrous band of geeks has only had time put up the projections for the QBs, RBs, TEs and WRs.

If you want the full package (which I think you do) Rocket Man will be more than happy to email you an Excel worksheet for whichever one of the scoring systems we cover. Just email him at rocketman@statleader.com and let him know which one you need. To see the scoring systems we have available just scroll down a bit to one of our previous posts.

Meanwhile our talented, dedicated and highly intelligent web team will continue work around the clock to get the site fully functional.

More updates to Follow.

(Turning to Rocket Man) Are we done? Is the post finished? Am I offline? OK, get those idiots on the phone for me.

(Speaking to the web group) What's the progress on the site updates? ... Our site ... StatLeader ... S-T-A-T-L-E-A-D-E-R ... yes, StatLeader, the one you allegedly work for...

...What? Yes I know the new video game is out but we have a site to run...

...No, no I don't care that you're on level six...

...No, I don't care that you have figured out how to get past...

...Listen, the season starts on...The Football Season...The one we cover...The NFL...No, No, we're not the NFL we cover the NFL...

...September 7...Yes this September 7...Yes, 10 days from now...Yes, I know there's another new game being released...

...Look, I realize that asking you to put down your controllers and actually consider doing some work around here us extremely unreasonable of me but...

...Alright, fine...I've given you every chance but now it's gone too far, finish the site or no more Invader Zim...I thought so.

KoRo Get the Heave Ho, TO does a No NO

Didn't take too long for things to return to normal for the 2006 season.

The Vikings have released WR Koren Robinson and the Cowboys have fined WR Terrell Owens a massive $9,500 (wow, bet that one really hurt).

With KoRo's departure, Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson look to be the top two Minnesota WRs. After that it's anybody's guess as there are no real standouts.

Meanwhile, Robinson may face a year-long suspension for violating the leagues substance abuse policy. You may recall Koren was arrested for DUI after being clocked doing over 100 mph in a 55 mph zone. Don't plan of drafting him (unless, of course, you are in one of those leagues who don't listen and drafted too early).

As for TO, his fine was for missing a team meeting. Given Owens' $10 million salary for 2006 this fine is a joke and likely done for no reason other than to publicly spank him.

Correct me if I'm wrong Rocket Man but a $9,500 fine at TO's salary is equivalent to a $47.50 fine to someone making $50 K per year. The only difference, TO still has more than $9,990,000 left afterwords.

Draft Package Reminder

Just a reminder that while we are waiting for the 2006 Draft Packages and Cheat Sheets to be posted, you can get your copy by emailing me at rocketman@statleader.com. Just send me your StatLeader ID and which of the default scoring systems you use from the list below.

I'll send you back an Excel file that contains our QB, RB, TE, and WR cheat sheets, four seasons of performance data (not you standard TDs and yards gained stuff) for QBs, RBs, TEs, WRs, Kickers, and Team Defenses, and four seasons of our proprietary Fantasy Points Allowed data.

The default scoring systems we cover are:

• AOL Draft-to-Play
• CBS SportsLine
• ESPN Traditional
• ESPN Performance
• Fox / MSN
• NFL.com
• Sporting News
• H2H Ultimate
• Ultimate Fantasy Football
• Fantasy Football Challenge
• Masters Salary Cup
  
• H2H Default
• Fantasy Football Commissioner
• Draft and Trade Fantasy Football
• Yahoo!

And remember, starting in 2007, we will be expanding our Fantasy Football point projections to work with just about any scoring system, default or customized.

RM

Sofa Man May Not Make Team

Packers RB Najeh Davenport is in danger of not making the Green Bay roster. Davenport was expected to compete for a starting position but has been nursing several injuries including recovering from a Broken ankle and has not had an impressive pre-season.

Meanwhile, Samkon Gado has moved behind Ahman Green for the #2 slot and former Northwestern Mildcat Noah Herron has been pushing to move Davenport out of the picture completely.

If things continue along as they are now, the sofa man may find himself watching the Pack for his couch. Too bad not only for him, but for all those teams that have already drafted Najeh.

Branch's Fantasy Football Value Out on a Limb

By now you should be aware of the continuing squabble between WR Deion Branch and the Patriots.

Yesterday, the Pats gave Branch 1 week to arrange a trade to another team (or what?). So, what does this all mean for Fantasy Football team owners. Three things:

1. Branch's value has some question to it right now depending on where he ends up. However, he is a starter and likely to have good value no matter where that is.
2. The bigger question revolves around the value of the other Pats receivers should Branch leave (more on that later). There will also be an impact to the order of receivers on any new team he might find.
3. The is a classic example of why you should schedule your fantasy draft as close to opening day as possible. I know of several leagues that drafted over three weeks ago, before the preseason even started. Many teams are going to end up with players that are injured, sitting, or may not even make the roster.

So what is going to happen with Branch? My gut feeling is that he'll stay with New England. At this point he is their only clear #1 receiver with David Givens gone. Additionally, one week isn't much time to arrange a trade in the NFL.

If, however, Branch does go somewhere else the value of players such as Kevin Faulk, Reche Caldwell, Troy Brown, Chad Jackson, and former Buckeye Brandon "Bam" Childress will increase. The question is the, by how much? Also, as talented as Tom Brady is, without both Branch and Givens, there may be a negative impact on his numbers as well.

As for Mr. Branch, I'm certainly sympathetic with his situation. The poor fellow only stands to make just over million dollars this year. I mean, how can he expect to survive on that? Let's face it, if any of us were working under a contract with our management, and we decided one day that we weren't making enough, well, they certainly would bend over backwards to give us more money, wouldn't they? Yeh, right.

Weekly Fantasy Football Projections

We appreciate the overwhelmingly positive response to the draft packages we have been sending out to our members. However, we want to remind you that the information you see presented in the historic sections of the package is the same type that you will get on a weekly basis during the regular season.

That's right, you'll get not only our league specific Fantasy Point analysis and projections but also rushing, passing, and receiving participation analysis for the RBs, QBs, WRs, and TEs. Additionally, you'll get our proprietary Fantasy Points allowed analysis, Kicker and Defense projections and, of course, all our other special inane commentary (including the Final Countdown pre-game reports).

So get ready for a fun (and successful) season and if you haven't had your Draft Package emailed to you, send a message to Rocket Man at rocketman@statleader.com. He'll send one to you in Excel format. Just be sure to let him know what the name of your league scoring system is (i.e. Yahoo Default, ESPN Traditional, etc.). A full list of the scorings systems we currently cover was presented in our August 18 post (just scroll down some....after you finish reading this).

Oh, by the way, for the 2007 season StatLeader will be expanding our capabilities to be able to handle virtually any scoring system whether they be defaults or your individual customized system.

2006 FOX-MSN Fantasy Football

Before I look at the Fox-MSN scoring system, just a reminder that as our web people are trying to figure out how to program, you can get our draft package by emailing me at rocketman@statleader.

Include your specific scoring system (Yahoo, ESPN Traditional, Fox, etc.) and StatLeader ID and I'll send you an Excel file that has the draft package. For those of you with dial-up, the package for each scoring system is a little over 1.1MB, so it may take a while to download.

Now, onto today's scoring system, Fox-MSN. As I noted in an earlier post, Fox Sports has revamped their default scoring system for 2006. Their new system is:

Offense:

Every 40 passing yards:	1 point
Each passing TD:	6 points
Each interception thrown:	-2 points
Every 15 rushing yards:	1 point
Each rushing TD:	6 points
Every 20 receiving yards:	1 point
Each receiving TD:	6 points
Each Off Fum Ret TD:	6 points
Each 2-point conversion:	2 points
Each fumble lost:	-2 points

Kicking:

Field goal 0-39 yards:	3 points
Field goal 40-49 yards:	4 points
Field goal 50+ yards:	5 points
Each extra point:	1 point

Defense:

Each sack:	1 point
Each interception:	2 points
Each fumble recovery:	2 points
Each TD: Interception, punt return, kickoff return, blocked kick, fumble recovery, etc.	6 points
Each safety:	2 points
Each blocked kick:	2 points
Shutout:	12 points
2-6 points allowed:	7 points
7-13 points allowed:	4 points
14-20 points allowed:	1 point
21-27 points allowed:	0 points
28-34 points allowed:	-1 points
35-41 points allowed:	-4 points
41+ points allowed:	-7 points

The change to a 40:15:10 (passing:rushing:receiving yards per point) from their old 25:10:10 system effectively reduced the value of both QBs and RBs. As I mentioned earlier, I think this brings the Wrs and TEs a little more into alignment with the QBs and RBs.

This change would have dropped Shaun Alexander's point total for 2005 from 344 down to just over 294 or, more than 3 point per game on average. Likewise, Tom Brady would have only earned around 217 points in 2005 under the new system rather than the 263 he actually received, an average drop of almost 3 points per game.

Meanwhile, on the defensive side look for the teams that get the turnovers and keep the score low. Yards allowed don't matter. Ideal for defenses that "bend, but don't break".

So, what's up tomorrow, well, you'll just have to come back to find out.

RM

NFL.com and CBS SportsLine Fantasy Football

Our overview of the 2006 Fantasy Football Scoring systems continues with the NFL.com and CBS SportsLine systems. First note that both leagues use the exact same system.

Before going any further, let me remind you of two things:

• Because of our technical difficulties in posting the draft package (although the web guys are working feverishly on it) I'll email, in Excel form, the 2006 package for any of the scoring systems we cover. It's a big package with lots of information as well as the 2006 cheat sheets. Just send me your request at rocketman@statleader.com (include your StatLeader ID in the message).

• While there is a lot of information in the draft package, it is only the beginning of what we do. Your membership also includes the full seasons worth of weekly analysis and point projections for each of the scoring systems we cover.
  

OK, on to the 2006 NFL.com and CBS SportsLine scoring systems:

Offense:

Every 25 passing yards:	1 point
Each passing TD:	6 points
Each interception thrown:	-2 points
Every 10 rushing yards:	1 point
Each rushing TD:	6 points
Every 10 receiving yards:	1 point
Each receiving TD:	6 points
Each 2-point conversion:	2 points
Fumble lost:	-2 points

Kicking:

Field goal 0-49 yards:	3 points
Field goal 50+ yards:	5 points
Each extra point:	1 point

Defense:

Each sack:	1 point
Each interception:	2 points
Each fumble recovery:	2 point
Each TD: Interception, punt return, kickoff return, blocked kick, fumble recovery, etc.	6 points
Each safety:	2 points
Points Allowed
0-6:	8 points
7-13:	6 points
14-20:	4 points
21-27:	2 points
28+:	0 points
Yards Allowed
0-49:	12 points
50-99:	10 points
100-149:	8 points
150-199:	6 points
200-249:	4 points
250-299:	2 points
300+:	0 points

Notes:

Offensive scoring is similar to Yahoo except that it is a 25:10:10 rather than the 50:20:20 used in Yahoo. Net result, higher point totals but not much else.

Compared to other leagues, this system has a relatively conservative approach to Kickers awarding only 3 or five points. There is no penalty for misses. The draft philosophy will differ from the earlier leagues I discussed only by the fact the consistent short yardage Kickers are put on a more equal footing without that extra point or two for FGs of 40+ yards.

The Defensive philosophy switches significantly here from the earlier leagues I reviewed. Now you need the total package, a D that gets the turnovers AND limits opponents scoring and yardage.

Next Up: Fox - MSN Fantasy Football

AOL Draft-to-Play Fantasy Football

Next up is a quick look at the AOL Draft-to-Play default scoring system. It reads as follows:

Offense:

Every 20 passing yards:	1 point
Each passing TD:	4 points
Bonus: 40-79 yds passing TD Bonus: 80+ yds passing TD	2 points 4 points
Each interception thrown:	-2 points
Every 10 rushing yards:	1 point
Each rushing TD:	6 points
Bonus: 40-79 yds rushing TD Bonus: 80+ yds rushing TD	2 points 4 points
Every 10 receiving yards:	1 point
Each receiving TD:	6 points
Bonus: 40-79 yds receiving TD Bonus: 80+ yds receiving TD	2 points 4 points
Each return TD:	6 points
Each 2-point conversion:	2 points

Kicking:

Field goal 0-39 yards:	3 points
Field goal 40-49 yards:	4 points
Field goal 50+ yards:	6 points
Each extra point:	1 point

Defense:

Each sack:	2 points
Each interception:	2 points
Each fumble recovery:	1 point
Each TD: Interception, punt return, kickoff return, blocked kick, fumble recovery, etc.	6 points
Each safety:	4 points
Shutout:	10 points

When comparing this to the Yahoo Default system the following should be noted:

1. With only 4 points for a passing TD the value of a QB is reduced in this league.
2. This loss of value is partially compensated for by the 20:10:10 (or 2:1:1) Passing:Rushing:Receiving ratio. Recall Yahoo had a 50:20:20 (or 2.5:1:1)
3. Again no penalties for missed FGs
4. With no points for the opponents yardage and scoring (with the exception of 10 points for a shutout) it really doesn't matter how many yards or points your D gives up. As such you should go for the teams Ds that score the most defensive TDs and get the most takeaways.

By the way, expanded versions of these posts, with more detailed analysis, will shortly be available on the member side.

Tomorrow: NFL.com

RM

2006 Yahoo Fantasy Football

To start our look at the different scoring systems we cover, we'll go with the Yahoo default system. Remember, our numbers for this system will work with any game (Yahoo or not) that used the same values (and are almost as good for leagues that use almost these values).

Offense:

Every 50 passing yards:	1 point
Each passing TD:	6 points
Each interception thrown:	-2 points
Every 20 rushing yards:	1 point
Each rushing TD:	6 points
Every 20 receiving yards:	1 point
Each receiving TD:	6 points
Each return TD:	6 points
Each Off Fum Ret TD:	6 points
Each 2-point conversion:	2 points
Each fumble lost:	-2 points

Kicking:

Field goal 0-19 yards:	3 points
Field goal 20-29 yards:	3 points
Field goal 30-39 yards:	3 points
Field goal 40-49 yards:	4 points
Field goal 50+ yards:	5 points
Each extra point:	1 point

Defensive:

Each sack:	1 point
Each interception:	2 points
Each fumble recovery:	2 points
Each TD:	6 points
Each safety:	2 points
Each blocked kick:	2 points
Shutout:	10 points
1-6 points allowed:	7 points
7-13 points allowed:	4 points
14-20 points allowed:	1 point
21-27 points allowed:	0 points
28-34 points allowed:	-1 points
35+ points allowed:	-4 points

Things to think about in this system:

1. Awarding 6 points for a passing TD increases the QBs value relative to other offensive players as many scoring systems award 3 or 4 points for a passing TD.
   
• We refer to this as a 6:6:6 league (No negative connotation here).
• We refer to leagues that offer 3 or 4 points for a passing TD vs 6 for a rushing/receiving TD as 3:6:6 and 4:6:6 leagues.
  
2. A 6:6:6 league also eliminates the advantage running QBs have in the 3:6:6 or 4:6:6 leagues.
3. The 2.5:1 passing to rushing/receiving yardage ratio is generally standard although the 50:20:20 (got it?) structure provides less points than a 25:10:10 (there ya go) league.
4. No negative points for missed FGs means a kicker who hits 3 of 5 every game is better than one who is 2-for-2 every game.
5. With no yardage penalty for the defense, you don't care if your D gives up a 1,000 yards a game as long as they get the takeaways and don't let the other guys score much.
   

Remember, in general, when looking at your scoring system, it's just as important to know what you are not gaining or losing points for as it is to know what you are.

Tomorrow we'll look at AOL's Draft-to-Play

2006 Draft Package Requests

Our web guys are promising to have the draft package site up next week (like I really believe that one).

In the meantime if you are getting close to your draft date and need the package for your league scoring system (Yahoo, NFL.com, ESPN Performance, etc.) email me with your member ID and scoring system (see my previous post for the scoring systems we cover) and I'll send you an Excel file with all the information.

You can reach me at rocketman@statleader.com.

RM

2006 Scoring Systems

Here is a list of the default scoring systems we will be covering throughout the 2006 season.

• AOL Draft-to-Play
• CBS SportsLine
• ESPN Traditional
• ESPN Performance
• Fox / MSN
• NFL.com
• Sporting News
• H2H Ultimate
• Ultimate Fantasy Football
• Fantasy Football Challenge
• Masters Salary Cup
  
• H2H Default
• Fantasy Football Commissioner
• Draft and Trade Fantasy Football
• Yahoo!

I'll review each of these briefly over the next couple of days so you can either verify that your system matches, or if you have a customized league, see how close you are to one of these.

By the way, for 2007 StatLeader will be adding the ability for you to enter your own specialized scoring systen. Keep an eye out.

RM

FOX Fantasy Football Alert

For those of you playing in Fox Fantasy Football Leagues using the default scoring system be alerted to the following changes from last year's scoring:

Passing Yards: Players now earn 1 point for every 40 Passing Yards vs. last year's 25 Passing Yards.

Rushing Yards: Players now earn 1 point for every 15 Rushing Yards vs. every 10 Rushing Yards last season.

Receiving Yards: No Change

The overall result of this change is to dilute the effectiveness of both QBs and RBs, making a quality WR even more valuable.

For example, under the old system, Peyton Manning's 3,747 passing yards would have earned him around 150 points. His 29 TDs would have brought in another 174 and with a couple from rushing he ended up with roughly 266 for the season. Under the new system, however, he drops to just over 222.

Meanwhile, Edgerrin James, who scored around 241 points under last year's system would drop to just under 208 points.

At the same time, receivers and tight ends are largely unaffected by this change.

I think this is a good realignment as last year only one WR made it over the 200 point level under the Fox system (any Guesses?). However, if you are used to the old system, you'll have to change your thinking a bit.

Or, of course, you could just get the StatLeader draft package which will rank everyone under the new system for you.

Our 2006 Draft Package

Doc has asked me to explain a little about how our 2006 draft package works. And, if our web guys ever finish the new site (allegedly in the next day or two) you may actually see it.

So, here is how it works.

For each of the scoring systems we cover we have done the following:

• We have collected game-by-game stats on every QB, RB, WR and TE over the past 4 seasons.

• For each player, we used the 2006 scoring rules for each system we track to go back and calculate all of our specialized StatLeader numbers (Consistency Factors, Participation Percents, etc) again on a game-by-game basis.

• From these numbers we were able to get a breakdown of the overall performance of each player based on their participation levels.

With me so far? OK. Now here is what we did with those numbers.

• We went to six of the absolute top NFL prognosticators in the world and from them obtained their projections on the performance of each of the QBs, RBs, TEs, and WRs for 2006.

• There were no rules placed on the experts other than they had to list at least their top 35 QBs, 50 RBs, 35 TEs and 50 WRs along with their projected 2006 stats.
  

• Once we had the final projections, we compiled a list of players at each of the positions along with their projected stats from all six experts.
  

• Any player not listed by at least four of the six experts was immediately removed from the list (For Example both priest Holmes and Travis Henry fell victim to this one).

Now comes the fun part:

• Through the miracles of modern technology we combined the historic data, projected statistics, and ran them through our proprietary StatLeader number crunchers and out came the following:

1. A list of projected points for each player under each of the 2006 scoring systems we cover.
2. A ranking based on their points for that specific scoring system.
3. A confidence factor.
   

So what is the confidence factor?

• Simply put, it's the level of confidence we have that the points we have projected are correct.

• The Confidence Factor is based on how close the projection of the six experts match each other, the number of seasons a player has under his belt, and one or two other things.
  

• The Confidence Factor runs from 0 - 100. The higher the number (90 is pretty darn good, 50 is pretty darn not good), the better you should feel about his projected points.

So what will you get? Well:

• You will have a cheat sheet with the projected points, ranking and Confidence Factor for each player under the different scoring systems and...

• The historic data for the 2002-2006 season totals

We also have some interesting stuff on Kickers and Defenses.

Now remember that the draft package is only a drop in the proverbial bucket. We give you week-by-week individual point projections from Week-1 through Week 17 of the season, all for our special price of $19.99.

By the way, if some of you are facing a draft deadline in the next couple of days, let me know at rocketman@statleader.com and I'll see what I can do.

Fantasy Football 2006: Draft Tip #15

We'll finish our look at the 2006 rookies with the Tight Ends.

My rookie tight end rankings?

1. Vernon Davis
2. Everyone else (Leonard Pope, Joe Klopfenstein, Marcedes Lewis, Anthony Fasano, and Tony Sheffler)

Just about everyone is rating Davis as not only one of the top rookies, but also as potential top ten tight end draft pick. Why? His size, speed, and natural ability. Add to this that the only thing between Davis and a starting position is Eric Johnson, well... looks pretty good. But, hold on there a minute pilgram, he also has the misfortune of being on the receiving end of things thrown by Alex Smith (or Trent Dilfer).

Everyone is comparing Davis to Antonio Gates, and they may be right. But remember, Gates played 15 games his first year and only managed 389 yards and 2 TDs. My advice is to give Davis at least a year to learn the ropes, especially given the 49ers offensive state right now.

As for the rest, don't even bother. Not to say there isn't talent, size, speed and so on, there is. But let's face it, most Fantasy Football leagues have only 10 or so teams. AND, most teams only draft one Tight End. AND, I would be hard pressed to rank any of the rookies other than Davis among the top 25 TEs.

Next up: While we finish up the site redesign, I'll take a look at some of the individual league projections and intricacies of their scoring systems.

Fantasy Football 2006 - Draft Tip #14

Continuing with our look at the rookie class here are my choices for the top four Wides (plus one rookie sleeper) in order of preference:

1. Santonio Holmes
2. Sinorice Moss
3. Maurice Stovall
4. Chad Jackson

Why? (I was afraid you were going to ask that)

Holmes - I saw him play at THE Ohio State University and, frankly, don't think there were any better in the 2006 draft. He should have little problem unseating Antwaan Randel El by midseason. The only downside? He's not playing with a Manning.

Moss - I just couldn't make a Eweniversity of Miami player my #1 pick, besides, Holmes is better anyway. Moss does have the advantage of playing with a Manning however he doesn't appear to possess the raw talent of big brother Santana and he still has to get past either Plax or Amani.

Stovall - Big and strong. A good fit in Gruden's system. But, there is no way (barring injury) this former member of the Blighting Irish moves ahead of Buckeye Joey Galloway or a more experienced Michael Clayton.

Jackson - Put up big numbers at "The Swamp", but the NFL isn't "The Swamp". There are concerns about his toughness. Still, with Givens gone, he may have an outside chance to start for the Pats. Not a bad position to be in with Brady at the helm.

Rookie Sleeper:

Greg Jennings - Quick, name two quality receivers on the Packers not including Donald Driver. Now you know why Jennings might be starting before long.

Next up: The Rookie Tight Ends

Fantasy Football 2006 - Draft Tip #13

Continuing in the "Lost in Space" vein of the my previous post...

"Last time, as you recall," we left out intrepid ban of space travelers searching the desolate regions of their planet for the rookie running back presence detected by the Robot. Little did they know that Dr. Smith had ordered the Robot to make the Jupiter 2's computers draft one of these rookies in the first 3 rounds, in the hope it would force them to return to Earth.


As we open this episode, Prof. Robinson and his wife Maureen are searching the NFC Desert in the Chariot while Major West is using the parajet thrusters to check the AFC Plateau.

Prof. Robinson: "Don, come in Don."

Major West: "Go ahead John."

Prof. Robinson: "We're just completing our search of the NFC Desert. The Robot was right. We found two rookie running backs in the south quadrant. What about you?"

Don: "I found three more on the AFC plateau, one in the east and two in the south."

Prof. Robinson (To Maureen): "It's worse than I thought; they seem to be surrounding the ship in hopes of forcing us into drafting one of them. If this theory is correct we could all be in terrible danger." (Activating his microphone) "Don, get back to the ship."

Meanwhile back at the Jupiter 2, Dr. Smith approaches Will and the Robot:

Dr. Smith: "Will, my fine lad, what are you doing?"

Will: "Dad was concerned about the rookie running backs so I decided to program the Robot with the information we had on them to see what he might be able to tell us."

Dr. Smith (Leering): "And?"

Will: "Report on running back analysis"

Robot: "Preliminary analysis of rookie running backs completed. Results contradictory."

Dr. Smith: "How so?"

Robot: "Assessment of potential by designated experts is not consistent with projected performance. Examples:

• LenDale White - He is a top prospect. Competing with frequently injured Chris Brown and Travis Henry could provide him an advantage. However, my computers indicate that Titans coach Norm Chow will use all three running backs decreasing any of their individual values.
  
• Joseph Addai - Some experts rank him ahead of players such as Corey Dillon and Curtis Martin. He is the most complete running back of the group but is expected to share duties with Dominic Rhodes, again reducing individual value.
• DeAngelo Williams - He will provide an excellent backup to DeShaun Foster. Foster played in only 4 games two seasons ago but was in 15 last year and 14 three years ago. Williams is not computed to see much action if F